Dollar index near a one-month low as the odds of a July Fed rate hike collapse to 11%
Jul 17, 2026
The U.S. dollar index (DXY), which measures the currency against a basket of six major peers, was little changed at around 100.47 on Thursday, July 16, 2026, hovering near its lowest level since June 18. The index has fallen about 0.8% over the past two sessions and is on track for a weekly decline.
Soft U.S. inflation data, including an unexpected drop in the June producer price index (its biggest fall in 14 months), pushed the implied odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the July meeting down to about 11%, from 45% at the start of the week. Even so, inflation fears driven by surging energy prices and U.S.-Iran tensions kept the dollar from falling further. The dollar's weakness and the Fed's rate path matter directly for the global gold market and for currency expectations in Iran.
Source
CNBC
Related news
Iran's government denies a gasoline price hike; rumored 10,000-toman third tier has no approval yet
Following reports about a possible "third tier" gasoline price of 10,000 toman per liter from the start of Mordad (23 July), Iran's government spokesperson stressed on Tuesday, 21 July 2026 (30 Tir 1405), that the government currently has no plan to change gasoline prices. The spokesperson of the parliament's energy commission also said that while there is talk of a gasoline price increase, no official decision has so far been communicated to parliament. The head of the Energy Optimization and Strategic Management Organization added that any decision to manage the gasoline shortfall would be taken only after weighing all economic and social dimensions. Fuel pricing and rationing is one of the country's most sensitive economic files because of its direct effect on inflation and transport costs, and the market reacts to any signal about it.
روزنامه تعادل · Jul 21, 2026
Gap between Iran's free-market and exchange-center dollar widens to about 39,000 toman on Tuesday
The gap between Iran's free-market dollar and the exchange-center transfer rate (the agreed, or tavafoghi, rate of the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center) widened on Tuesday, 21 July 2026 (30 Tir 1405). The exchange-center transfer dollar rose about 227 toman to nearly 150,900 toman, while the free-market dollar climbed about 1.4 percent to around 190,000 toman by Tuesday evening. On that basis, the gap between the two rates reached about 39,000 toman (close to 26 percent), a spread that reflects the war-risk premium in the open market amid the Iran-US conflict. At the same exchange center, the euro transfer rate was about 172,223 toman and the UAE dirham about 41,093 toman. The tavafoghi rate is an official, managed rate used for part of the country's imports and trade transactions, and it typically sits below the free-market rate.
روزنامه تعادل · Jul 21, 2026
Saudi Arabia rejects Houthi maritime embargo declaration, vows to protect Red Sea shipping
Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, 21 July 2026, rejected the declaration of a maritime embargo against it by Yemen's Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement, dismissing the claim as false. The Houthis had announced on Monday the immediate imposition of a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia on an "eye for an eye" basis, in response to what they call a blockade of Yemen. Riyadh stressed it would use all lawful measures under international law to protect its shipping and warned of the risk of escalation in the Red Sea. The United Nations also condemned the latest Houthi threats and voiced concern over the danger of a wider regional crisis. The move comes as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has effectively halted because of the Iran-US war. A closure of the Bab al-Mandab passage could disrupt Saudi Arabia's Red Sea crude exports (about 4.5 million barrels per day, most of it bound for Asia) and add fresh pressure on the global oil market and the Brent risk premium that matters for Iran's economy.
The National · Jul 21, 2026
European shares edge higher Tuesday as easing oil and earnings lift sentiment
European stock indexes edged higher in Tuesday trading, 21 July 2026, after a weak start to the week. The pan-European STOXX 600 rose about 0.1 percent to around 640 points. A pullback in oil prices from one-month highs, following reports of mediation efforts between the United States and Iran, helped lift sentiment, even as concern over energy-supply disruption persisted after Yemen's Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. Technology was the best-performing sector, up about 0.9 percent, with semiconductor-equipment makers ASML and ASMI gaining around 2.8 and 2.1 percent respectively. On the earnings front, drugmaker Novartis rose about 2.2 percent after its operating profit beat estimates.
Reuters · Jul 21, 2026