Russia's Urals Crude Sinks to $41.66 a Barrel, Below Pre-War Levels, Deepening the Kremlin's Budget Squeeze (Monday, July 6, 2026)

Russia's oil price sank today to its lowest level since before the Iran war. Every barrel of this crude now trades for just forty one dollars and sixty six cents. That is the lowest monthly average for Urals crude so far this year. Global benchmark Brent, which topped one hundred twenty dollars at the war's peak, now trades below seventy two dollars. The Urals discount to Brent has widened from two or three dollars in June to over twenty seven dollars now. That means global oil has fallen nearly forty percent from its crisis peak in just a few months. Higher OPEC plus output and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz have added to global supply. At the same time, drone strikes on Russian refineries have knocked out capacity and caused fuel queues. Russia's oil and gas revenue fell forty five percent in the first quarter of this year. This matters for Iran too, since its US oil authorization now nets a cheaper barrel. Vladimir Putin says Russia is considering a complete ban on diesel fuel exports. This slide began back in June with weaker Asian demand and deepened into July's collapse. Russia is Iran's OPEC plus counterpart, and pressure on its budget could shape future output decisions. Watch for Russia's diesel export decision and OPEC plus's next output meeting. Read the full analysis on Sahmino.