Iran Aluminium trades at a P/E near 6, under half its group: spring profit rose 7.7x, but monthly sales in Tir and Mordad ran 39% below the spring pace (Sunday, September 27, 2026)

ALIR profit up 7.7x; why a P/E of six?

Iran Aluminium (ticker Fayra) reported in its three-month statement to June 21, 2026 (1405/03/31, unaudited, amended filing, codal tracing number 1573451) quarterly net profit of 74,844 billion rials, 7.7 times the 9,762 billion rials of the same quarter of 2025, on quarterly revenue up 320%. With that quarter, twelve-month net profit stands at 150 trillion rials and the twelve-month net margin at 24%. Yet the board P/E at the Sunday, September 27, 2026 close (15,000 rials) is 6.2, under half the basic metals group's 13.5, and about 40 billion tomans of retail money has left the stock over the last 20 sessions. This report separates the roles of the global aluminium price, the rial conversion rate and sales volume in that jump, and sets out what the six-month statement needs to show.

Background

Iran Aluminium trades on the main board of the Tehran Stock Exchange in the basic metals group and sells pure ingot, billet and alloy ingot. Registered capital is 62 trillion rials (62 billion shares), and free float was recorded at 21% in the nightly reading of September 25, 2026. The annual general meeting of July 21, 2026 distributed 800 rials in cash from EPS of 1,370 rials for fiscal 1404, a 58% payout (assembly decisions on codal, tracing number 1577748); payment to individual shareholders was scheduled from September 23 through Sejam. A day after the meeting, on July 22, the company disclosed that its capital increase from 62 to 80 trillion rials had been removed from the securities regulator's agenda, because documents fixing the final debt balance and a central bank confirmation on a Bank Saderat foreign currency facility were not supplied in time (tracing number 1573099).

The numbers

• Spring 2026 operating revenue: 250,818 billion rials against 59,717 billion rials a year earlier, up 320%; cost of sales rose 3.1 times (income statement on codal, figures in million rials)
• Quarterly gross profit: 105,941 billion rials; gross margin up from 22.2% to 42.2%
• Profit before tax: 99,793 billion rials, 9.5 times; quarterly tax 24,948 billion rials, an effective rate of 25.0% against 7.5% a year earlier
• Quarterly net profit: 74,844 billion rials and EPS of 1,207 rials, against 9,762 billion rials and 157 rials
• Twelve months to June 21, 2026 (Sahmino's calculation from the statements): revenue 628,158 billion rials, net profit 150,004 billion rials, net margin 23.9%, EPS 2,419 rials
• Sales in the first five months (Farvardin to Mordad 1405, March 21 to August 22, 2026): 67,288 tonnes and 351,863 billion rials, against 53,581 tonnes and 112,435 billion rials a year earlier; exports rose from 29% to 53% of tonnage sold (Mordad monthly activity report, tracing number 1592120)
• Monthly pace: spring 48,298 tonnes and 250,818 billion rials, an average of 83,606 billion rials a month; Tir 8,821 tonnes and 44,870 billion rials; Mordad 10,169 tonnes and 57,108 billion rials (Tir and Mordad monthly reports, tracing numbers 1578576 and 1592120)
• Price: 15,000 rial close on September 27, up 2.2% on the day and 5.8% below the 52-week high of 15,920 rials; board P/E 6.2 on EPS of 2,419 rials, against a basic metals group P/E of 13.48 (nightly reading of September 25, 2026)

Drivers

Tonnage, world price or the rial? The average rial price per tonne sold in the first five months of 1405 was 5,229 million rials, 2.5 times last year's 2,098 million rials, while tonnage sold rose 25.6%. Over the same span the monthly average LME aluminium cash price rose from $2,508 per tonne (April to August 2025) to $3,427 (April to August 2026), up 36.7%; the calendar months approximate Farvardin to Mordad. What remains of the rial price increase, 82%, is the implied conversion of each dollar of world price into rials: about 837,000 rials in the five months of 1404 and about 1.53 million rials in the five months of 1405. That is not the official rate of any market and it carries the premium or discount of domestic and export sales, but the 1405 figure sits close to the Exchange Centre remittance dollar over those months, which Sahmino's series recorded between about 1.4 and 1.57 million rials. Splitting the 3.1-fold rise in five-month sales value among the three factors on a logarithmic basis gives about 53% to the rial conversion rate, 27% to the world price and 20% to tonnage.

Why profit outran sales. Quarterly revenue rose 4.2 times and cost of sales 3.1 times; that gap lifted the gross margin from 22% to 42% and operating profit 10.8 times. Net profit, at 7.7 times, grew more slowly than profit before tax (9.5 times) because the effective tax rate rose from 7.5% to 25%.

A quieter summer. Sales in Tir and Mordad together came to 18,990 tonnes and 101,978 billion rials: a monthly average of 50,989 billion rials, 39% below the spring monthly average, with monthly tonnage 41% lower. The price per tonne did not fall (5,087 million rials in Tir and 5,616 million rials in Mordad), so the decline came from volume. Meanwhile the monthly LME average fell from $3,670 in May 2026 to $3,285 in September (through September 25), 10.5% lower; the latest price in Sahmino's series is $3,281.5 on September 25. On the other side, the Exchange Centre remittance dollar rose from 1,511,200 rials on July 22 to 1,706,268 rials on September 24, up 12.9%.

Retail money. Over the 20 sessions from August 31 to September 27, 2026, individual investors were net sellers of about 399 billion rials (about 40 billion tomans) of Fayra. That figure comes from the sessions of August 31 and September 1, when individuals net sold about 1,262 billion rials together; over the following 18 sessions net individual flow was about 863 billion rials positive. Values for the last three sessions are estimated from volume times the closing price. Institutions in Iran are not necessarily "smart money", and this report attributes no motive to buyers or sellers.

The rival view: is the low multiple just neglect? If spring EPS (1,207 rials) were annualized, the P/E at 15,000 rials would be about 3.1, yet the market prices even twelve-month profit at 6.2 times. That price is not consistent with spring repeating; it is consistent with a market that treats part of spring's profit as temporary. The slower summer sales pace, the retreat in the world price, the jump in the effective tax rate and the open file on the Bank Saderat currency facility are four factors that emerge from the data. They are plausible explanations, not proven causes.

Outlook

The six-month statement to September 22, 2026 is the test of this reading, and the Shahrivar monthly activity report arrives before it. Two numbers matter: Shahrivar's monthly sales against the spring average of 83,606 billion rials, and the summer quarter's gross margin against spring's 42%. If Shahrivar makes up the Tir and Mordad shortfall and the rise in the Exchange Centre dollar covers the fall in the world price, second-quarter sales could approach spring; if Shahrivar also stays at the Tir and Mordad pace, second-quarter sales will be about 39% below spring.

Our earlier readings have not yet reached their horizon: Maroon (above 26,930 rials through September 30) at a last trade of 28,560 rials on September 27, and Fenoghreh (above 15,818 rials through September 30) at a last trade of 17,270 rials, are holding so far.

Bottom line

Fayra's multiple of six is the price of doubt, not unexplained cheapness: about half of the five-month sales jump came from the rial conversion rate and more than a quarter from the world price, and monthly sales in Tir and Mordad ran 39% below the spring pace. Our reading: Fayra's Shahrivar sales stay below 83,606 billion rials, the spring monthly average, as long as LME aluminium stays below the spring average of $3,576; a Shahrivar sales report above 83,606 billion rials invalidates it. Horizon: the Shahrivar monthly report; reading as of September 27, 2026.

What to watch

• The Shahrivar monthly activity report: tonnage and sales value against the spring monthly average of 83,606 billion rials
• The summer quarter's gross margin in the six-month statement against spring's 42%
• The average LME aluminium price against $3,576, the April to June 2026 average
• Any new notice on the Bank Saderat currency facility and the capital increase file

To repeat this test, open Fayra's page in Rasad and compare the stock's P/E with the basic metals group average. Related: Fayra's cash dividend payment schedule.