Bank of America: Hormuz Traffic Needs to Rise Tenfold to Stabilize Oil Markets Amid Severe Diesel and Gasoline Shortages

Bank of America warned on Monday, 19 Mordad 1405 (August 10, 2026), that oil prices could keep climbing into the winter if the United States and Iran fail to reach an agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz, as severe shortages emerge in global diesel, gasoline and natural gas markets. According to Oilprice.com, Francisco Blanch, BofA's head of commodities and derivatives research, told CNBC that the bank had expected Brent to stay in the $70 to $80 range on the assumption of some resolution, but that prices will keep creeping higher into winter without a deal.

Blanch said only 5 to 10 ships a day are currently passing through the Strait of Hormuz, compared with roughly 140 before the war, and that traffic would need to recover to 80 to 100 ships a day to stabilize energy markets. He said diesel crack spreads, the difference between diesel and crude prices, have surged to roughly $80 to $85 a barrel, calling it nearly unprecedented, and that oil inventories offer far less cushion than during past supply disruptions. Bank of America separately said its bull and bear indicator has climbed to its highest level since 2021, and recommended investors become more defensive on risk assets. Brent crude was trading 3.08 percent higher at $86.12 a barrel Monday morning, the report said, with WTI up 3.25 percent at $80.72.