ECB decides Thursday; markets expect rates held at 2.25%

The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decides on interest rates on Thursday, 23 July 2026, with markets pricing a probability above 99 percent that the deposit rate is held at 2.25 percent. The decision follows a 0.25 percentage point increase at the June meeting, the bank's first rate rise since 2023.

The July meeting is held without updated staff projections, so the main signalling burden falls on the policy statement and the press conference of President Christine Lagarde at 14:30 Central European Time. Some analysts describe it as a hawkish-leaning hold that could leave the door open for a move in September. The path of euro rates and the currency's strength matter for global markets, the euro to dollar cross, and Iran's import basket.