Kalshi prediction market traders put the odds of a US Iran nuclear deal below 50 percent

On the Kalshi prediction market, the probability of the United States and Iran reaching a nuclear deal before January 2027 rose to 29 percent early on Sunday 2 August 2026, from 17 percent on Saturday evening. Over the same period the odds of a deal before March 2027 climbed from 20 percent to more than 40 percent. The jump followed Donald Trump's decision late on Saturday 1 August to call off planned military strikes against Iran.

After Trump announced that negotiations would resume on Monday, the recorded probabilities eased again. As of Monday 3 August, all Kalshi markets on the timing of a nuclear deal stood below 50 percent, with the exception of the market on a deal before January 2029, the furthest out date offered.

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei told a news conference on Monday that there is no immediate plan for talks with the United States. Following Trump's announcement on negotiations and the halt to strikes, oil prices fell: West Texas Intermediate futures for September delivery dropped 6 percent to below 80 dollars a barrel, while Brent crude futures for October delivery fell more than 4 percent. CNBC, which reported these figures, discloses that it has a commercial relationship with Kalshi.