Russia's Urals Crude Falls to Pre-Iran-War Levels, Straining Kremlin Budget

Russia's Urals crude averaged $41.66 a barrel over the first three days of July 2026, a $27.35 discount to Dated Brent, according to Argus Media data cited in a Bloomberg report published July 6, 2026. The drop erases the windfall from the Iran war oil price spike that had helped push Russia to a June budget surplus. Russia's 2026 budget was built around an assumed Urals price of about $59 a barrel, so the latest slide threatens to widen the deficit. The move reverses the rising oil revenue trend reported for Russia earlier in July.