US growth slowed to 1.5% in the second quarter while the GDP price index jumped to 6.3%

According to the advance estimate from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis published on Thursday, 30 July 2026 (8 Mordad 1405), US gross domestic product grew at an annualised rate of 1.5 percent in the second quarter of 2026. That compares with 2.1 percent in the first quarter, and the market had also expected 2.1 percent.

The notable part of the release is on prices: the GDP price index rose at an annualised 6.3 percent in the second quarter, against 3.6 percent in the first quarter and a market forecast of 3.6 percent. The quarterly personal consumption expenditures price measure rose to 5.1 percent from 4.6 percent, although its core reading eased to 3.4 percent from 4.4 percent. Real consumer spending grew at an annualised 3.2 percent in the quarter, against 0.5 percent in the first.

The combination of slower growth and accelerating prices is the pattern usually associated with an energy shock, and it complicates the Federal Reserve's task. The data came a day after the US policy rate was held in the 3.5 to 3.75 percent range, a decision three Federal Open Market Committee members dissented from by voting for a 25 basis point increase. The path of US interest rates and the value of the dollar affect Iran's markets through the global gold price.