India's central bank faces a 100 billion dollar forward book challenge in its rupee defense

According to Bloomberg on July 10, 2026 (19 Tir 1405), India's central bank, the RBI, has built one of the world's largest bearish dollar bets over the past two years to support a persistently weak rupee, and now faces the challenge of unwinding that position without destabilizing the currency market. The RBI's forward book had swelled to a record 106.7 billion dollars in May. The dollar to rupee rate rose to 95.5240 on July 10, up 0.09 percent from the previous session; the rupee has weakened 0.39 percent over the past month and 11.29 percent over the past twelve months. Bloomberg reported that dollar sales by India's state run banks, together with a modest pullback in crude oil prices, have helped the rupee recover to around 95.2 per dollar. Lower oil prices matter strategically for India, one of the world's largest crude importers, which has been hit hard by the oil shock from the Strait of Hormuz crisis.