Skip to main content
Up to 53% offSee the plans

Sahmino callsCommodity

Gold ounceXAUUSDBearish

Ounce below $4,200: our bearish target was breached intraday today, now the daily close is decisive

Horizon: Short term (about 3 weeks, until 20 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

$4,191.16

That daydown2.2%

Support

$4,235.82

Resistance

$4,285

Invalidation

$4,314.94

The levels on the chart

Since writtendown1.6%

Conclusion

I remain bearish and I'm raising the probability of a daily close below $4,235.82 by 20 Mehr from 55 to about 65 percent; I'm lowering the invalidation level from $4,373.85 to $4,314.94 (the 3 Mehr high). Risk: a weak US data print or an escalation of the war that drives safe-haven demand could reverse today's drop before the close.

The evidence

  • The 4 Mehr bearish view still stands and the $4,373.85 invalidation has not been touched. Today, 6 Mehr at 8:39, the ounce is at $4,190.41, $94.59 below the last close and below the $4,235.82 target; but the day has not closed yet.
  • $4,235.82 was the 25 Shahrivar low and, until yesterday, the lowest price of the past 30 days. The ounce is below the 20-day average ($4,330.03) and about 22.4 percent below the 52-week high ($5,400.25).
  • The main channel is the real interest rate: according to Ecoiran, the Federal Reserve raised the target rate to 3.75 to 4 percent on 25 Shahrivar 1405, the first increase since 2023. Higher yields raise the opportunity cost of holding yield-less gold.
  • For the Iranian market, domestic gold price is built by multiplying the ounce by the free-market dollar rate; the free-market dollar was 2,350,000 rial on 5 Mehr, and its rise offsets part of the ounce's drop. We do not have the dollar index or real yield in our data.

If it holds

If the daily close stays below $4,314.94, the base scenario is a close below $4,235.82 and the level stabilizing below $4,200 by 20 Mehr.

If it breaks

If a daily close above $4,314.94 is recorded, this view is invalidated and today's drop was just an intraday move.

What to watch

What to watch: today's close relative to $4,235.82, US inflation and employment data that will determine the Federal Reserve's next path, and any geopolitical escalation that builds safe-haven demand.

Every call on this symbol

27 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 28 September 08:46BearishOunce below $4,200: our bearish target was breached intraday today, now the daily close is decisive$4,191.16down1.6%
  2. 26 September 08:44BearishBrent jumped 3.6 percent and the ounce fell: gold did not react to war risk on Mehr 2$4,285down2.2%
  3. 19 September 14:02BullishInterest rate went up and gold went up too, because the transmission channel is real yield, not the nominal rate$4,383.45down2.2%
  4. 16 September 08:37NeutralThe $4,316 invalidation is active; ahead of tonight's Fed vote, the ounce is neutral in the $4,256 to $4,355 box$4,321.89up1.4%
  5. 15 September 13:37BearishYesterday we said it would stay above $4,280 and it did not, we count this call as a loss$4,271.01up1.2%
  6. 14 September 13:48NeutralThe $4,301 target was touched in two days; we're neutralizing the vote until the Fed's Wednesday meeting$4,288.41down0.4%
  7. 5 September 08:58NeutralGold ounce reclaimed the $4,370 resistance from the previous map; the Jackson Hole correction reversed as fast as it came$4,432.56down3.3%
  8. 2 September 09:01BearishGold ounce also lost the $4,370 support and fell to $4,285.88; correction intensifies after Jackson Hole$4,285.88up3.4%
  9. 1 September 12:36BearishGold ounce broke the $4,400 support too, falling to $4,370; the same correction after Fed remarks continues$4,370.49down1.9%
  10. 29 August 13:48BearishGold ounce broke the $4,500 invalidation level and fell to $4,454; the trigger was Federal Reserve remarks$4,454.08down1.9%
  11. 28 August 17:58NeutralGold Ounce Falls Below $4,570; Correction Continues Amid the "Dollar Devaluation" Wave$4,562.61down2.4%
  12. 27 August 18:01NeutralGold ounce lost this morning's card support level of $4,594 as well and slid toward testing $4,500$4,574.65down0.3%