ورازیRZIPBearish

I remain bearish and lower the target to 1,561 rial (closing of 25 Shahrivar) and bring the invalidation level down from 1,745 to 1,695 rial: I give about a 55 percent probability that the close will be recorded at or below 1,561 rial by 14 Mehr. Risk: in the base market a single large buyer can clear the queue in one day, and the Hormuz file that Araghchi spoke of its conditions on 5 Mehr (Donya-e-Eqtesad citing ISNA) determines the whole market's swing, not this insurer's profit.

• Vorazi today, 5 Mehr, opened at the floor of the range, 1,632 rial, and is locked; at 10:50 the sell queue was 130 sellers and about 55.7 million shares, nearly double the month's average daily volume (29.9 million shares).
• The 1 Mehr card's target, a close below 1,647 rial, has effectively been reached with this lock; it is not yet the official closing price, and a single large buyer could clear the queue before the session ends.
• Earnings per share of 18 rial and a price-to-earnings ratio of about 90 (4 Mehr reading); the current price has placed almost its entire value on future earnings, not on current profit.
• Sahmino desk's risk-free rate is 42.1 percent (4 Mehr), up from 41.3 percent on 26 Shahrivar; for the insurer this cuts both ways: investment income on reserves rises, but the equity discount rate also rises with this same factor.
• IFB yellow base: liquidity is thin and halt risk is high; the IFB overall index was 57,662 on 4 Mehr and nearly level with 28 Shahrivar, so this decline is specific to the symbol's own supply, not the market.