شلردSHLPBearish

I maintain the bearish view with caution: the 3,560 support was touched and held intraday, but today's return is not confirmed by volume below the monthly average and neutral retail flow. The 3,860 invalidation level has not been touched and the previous card is not voided. The cause of the decline is the gap between the free dollar's rise and the exchange center's remittance rate. I estimate about 55 percent probability that the closing price by 18 Mehr approaches 3,560; the key risk is the thin liquidity of the base market.

• Shelrad opened today (13 Mehr) with a bearish gap at 3,540 rial in the IFB yellow base market and touched the published support (3,560 rial) intraday, then rose to 3,740 rial and is now at 3,730 rial, 2.47 percent above yesterday's close.
• Yesterday (12 Mehr) recorded a third consecutive bearish close, closing at 3,640 rial, above the 3,560 support and far from the 3,860 rial invalidation level, which has not yet been touched.
• Today's return comes with weak volume: trading volume of 96.2 million shares, below the monthly average (152.4 million shares); net retail volume is roughly neutral and slightly negative (2.1 million shares), so the return is not yet confirmed by real buying.
• The free dollar has jumped about 14 percent in one week (2,350,000 to 2,683,000 rial), but the exchange center's remittance dollar, the urea export settlement rate, over the same period has reached only 1,757,542 rial; the gap is squeezing Shelrad's margin.
• The base market has different price bands and liquidity than the TSE, and the probability of a trading halt on the symbol is higher; as Aban approaches with the seasonal winter gas restrictions, the risk of feedstock cuts for urea producers comes onto the agenda.