Iran Market Pulse, Wednesday, September 16, 2026: Retail Investors Bought a Net 10.2 Billion Shares, the Most Since 17 August, and the Tehran Stock Exchange Index Set a Fresh Record at 7,521,959

1. Lead

The session of Tuesday, 24 Shahrivar 1405 (15 September 2026), is explained not by the level of the index but by the other side of the trade. In our own recorded data, retail investors were net buyers of 10,221 million shares on the Tehran Stock Exchange board. Within our recorded 30 day window, only one session was larger: Monday, 26 Mordad 1405 (17 August 2026), at 17,106 million shares. Between those two dates, the largest net retail purchase was 9,903 million shares on 31 Mordad (22 August).

The direction of that figure matters as much as its size, because it is the exact reverse of the previous session: on Monday, 23 Shahrivar (14 September), retail investors were net sellers of 960 million shares on the same board, so the one session swing is 11,181 million shares.

In the same session the Tehran Stock Exchange main index rose 128,712 points, or 1.74 percent, to close at 7,521,959, above its previous peak of 7,431,450 set on 22 Shahrivar (13 September). Outside the board the directions differed: the free market dollar fell 0.39 percent and bitcoin dropped 2.30 percent over 24 hours. The market opens today at 9:00 Tehran time, and every board reading here belongs to Tuesday's session.

2. Today's Snapshot

3. Today's Key Headlines

• The Tehran Stock Exchange main index closed Tuesday, 15 September, up 1.74 percent at about 7,521,000 points. According to EcoIran, the return of retail investors and a net inflow of roughly 7.4 trillion toman strengthened demand in the second half of trading (EcoIran, Tuesday 15 September).
• According to SENA, in Tuesday's trading the indices of 34 TSE industries moved higher and 18 industries set new historical peaks. In the previous session, Monday 14 September, those figures were 11 industries higher and 7 at historical peaks (SENA, 14 and 15 September).
• More than 10 major Wall Street banks, including Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley, expect the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 0.25 percent at today's meeting, Wednesday 16 September. The CME FedWatch tool prices an 87.3 percent probability of the hike (Arzdigital, Tuesday 15 September).
• Bitcoin fell below the 77,000 dollar level on Tuesday, as hopes faded for progress on the US Senate's crypto market structure bill. This morning it stands at 75,884 dollars (Arzdigital and Donya-e-Eqtesad, Tuesday 15 September).
• Iranian light crude for delivery to northwest Europe rose 2.36 percent to 105.25 dollars a barrel and heavy crude rose 2.41 percent to 103.35 dollars. Brent crossed 107 dollars the same day (Donya-e-Eqtesad citing Mehr and OilPrice, Tuesday 15 September).
• China's industrial output rose 5.2 percent year on year in August, beating forecasts, but retail sales grew just 0.4 percent and property investment fell 19.9 percent (EcoIran, Tuesday 15 September).

4. Currency

The free market dollar was recorded at 230,395 toman in the last reading of Tuesday, 15 September, at 19:59, down 905 toman or 0.39 percent from Monday's close. Three independent readings build this figure: our own feed row, TGJU which recorded the same rate for Tuesday's session, and the "tavafoqi" (agreed) row sitting at 230,410 toman, effectively level with it. The day's range is worth writing down too, because the closing figure is not the whole story: Tuesday's lowest recorded rate was 229,760 and the highest 232,520 toman.

The gap between the two rates narrowed this time. The remittance dollar sell rate at the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Centre was recorded at 164,888 toman on Tuesday at 08:17, with the buy rate at 163,404 toman. Both ends of the arithmetic are explicit. Monday, 14 September: free rate 231,300 and remittance rate 164,395 toman, so the gap was 66,905 toman and the ratio 40.70 percent. Tuesday, 15 September: free rate 230,395 and remittance rate 164,888 toman, so the gap is 65,507 toman and the ratio 39.73 percent. Subtracting the two gaps gives 1,398 toman of narrowing, and subtracting the two ratios gives 0.97 points. Both ends come from one series and one source, and both carry dates.

The mechanism behind this gap is definitional and needs no added assumption: the free rate comes from supply and demand in the banknote market, and the remittance rate from administrative allocation for imports and specified uses. What closed the gap this time was both ends moving toward each other: the free rate fell 905 toman and the administrative rate rose 493 toman. The UAE dirham closed Tuesday at 63,070 toman, down 246 toman or 0.39 percent, and this is the effective rate for a large share of Iran's imports routed through Dubai; the Exchange Centre remittance rate for the dirham is 44,898 toman. In global currency markets, the euro against the dollar at 1.1541 and sterling against the dollar at 1.3480 are slightly higher, and the dollar against the yen at 155.36 is higher (Wednesday 16 September, 07:37).

5. Gold and Coin

The domestic gold and coin market eased slightly on Tuesday while spot gold rose. 18 karat gold closed at 23,259,100 toman, down 24,300 toman or 0.10 percent; the gold mesghal at 100,748,000 toman, down 0.11 percent; and the Emami coin at 231,485,000 toman, down 2,500,000 toman or 1.07 percent. The day's range for 18 karat gold was 23,107,000 to 23,340,200 toman.

The share that is not gold has thinned this week. The Emami coin premium (hobab, the gap between a coin's market price and the value of the metal in it) was recorded at 1,695,000 toman on Tuesday, equal to 0.73 percent of the coin price; the intrinsic value of the same coin, based on the metal and the day's rate, is 226,999,900 toman. For comparison, the Bahar Azadi coin premium is 6,190,000 toman and the quarter coin premium 37,230,000 toman. These ratios are a measurement and not a judgement: the premium is by definition the distance between the market price and the value of the struck metal, and its thinness on the Emami coin means a buyer today is paying less for the coin-ness itself than on the smaller pieces.

The three way arithmetic has a clear direction this time. The rial price of gold is by definition the product of spot gold and the dollar rate. On Tuesday the dollar fell 0.39 percent and over the same window spot gold rose, so the two external drivers roughly cancelled each other out, and the one tenth of a percent decline in the domestic gram leaves nothing else to explain. This morning, however, both sides are up: spot gold stands 0.75 percent higher at 4,327.17 dollars and 18 karat trading gold opened 0.18 percent higher at 23,170,100 toman (Wednesday 16 September, 07:44). Spot silver is also 1.57 percent higher at 64.59 dollars.

On the exchange board, gold funds moved the other way: the Tala fund closed 1.65 percent lower at 160,187 toman and Jam-e Tala 1.47 percent lower at 2,059 toman (Tuesday 15 September, 13:25). A one session divergence between fund and metal is not unusual, because the fund trades during board hours and the metal until evening.

6. Bourse and Farabourse

The Tehran Stock Exchange and the Farabourse are two separate markets with two separate indices, and on Tuesday both closed green. The TSE main index rose 128,712 points, or 1.74 percent, to close at 7,521,959, above the previous peak of 7,431,450 set on 13 September. The equal weight index rose 23,350 points, or 1.17 percent, to close at 2,017,495, meaning it reclaimed the 2 million mark it had lost on Monday in the very next session. The Farabourse main index, a separate index on a separate market, rose 967 points, or 1.69 percent, to stand at 58,196. Recorded turnover on the Tehran board was 55,408 billion toman across 1,002,798 trades, and on the Farabourse 41,939 billion toman across 563,504 trades.

Market breadth came back too. SENA publishes each session the number of industries whose indices closed higher, and three consecutive sessions of that series read: Sunday 13 September, 36 industries higher; Monday 14 September, 11 industries higher and 7 at historical peaks; Tuesday 15 September, 34 industries higher and 18 at historical peaks. In other words, the two session collapse in breadth that our report yesterday examined was almost entirely recovered in a single session. This measure counts each industry once, which is why it says something the main index does not, since the main index is built on market capitalisation weights.

The other side of the trade, which is where today's headline comes from. In our own recorded data, retail investors were net buyers of 12,531 million shares across the whole market on Tuesday, of which 10,221 million shares were on the Tehran board and 2,359 million on the Farabourse. The retail share of total buying on the Tehran board was 71.8 percent, against 28.2 percent institutional. Both ends of the "last time" arithmetic are explicit: the search ran over our recorded 30 day window ending 15 September, and within that window only Monday, 17 August 2026, at 17,106 million shares, is larger than Tuesday's reading; the nearest runner up after that was 9,903 million shares on 22 August. Three methodological caveats are required: these figures count share numbers and not rial value, they say nothing about the intent of any group, and the search window is those 30 days and not all of history. EcoIran reported the same session from the rial angle and recorded a net inflow of roughly 7.4 trillion toman.

The board says the same thing, symbol by symbol. The heaviest turnover of the session went to Foulad (Mobarakeh Steel) at 1,897 billion toman, then Vapasar (Bank Pasargad) at 1,522, Femeli (National Copper) at 1,374, Vabmelat (Bank Mellat) at 1,313 and Shepna (Isfahan Oil Refining) at 1,148 billion toman. In our board events data, Foulad recorded its eighth consecutive higher close, rose 2.99 percent and reached its highest closing price since 23 Dey 1404 (13 January 2026); this morning it faces a buy queue of 274,950,789 shares at 323.9 toman. Nouri (Nouri Petrochemical) recorded its ninth consecutive higher close, reached its highest level in a year at 4,505 toman, and traded 3.2 times its twenty session average volume. Vapasar closed on 4.82 times its twenty session average volume with 78.9 percent of its buying retail; that ratio was 84.5 percent at Nouri and 58.2 percent at Mobin. The only red name among the ten heaviest was Shepna, down 0.35 percent. The Base Market, the shallower board inside the Farabourse with wider bands and more halts, recorded no notable event in our data.

7. Crypto

The largest move of the past 24 hours came from the crypto market, and today is also that market's decision day. Both ends of the arithmetic come from one series and one source: bitcoin stood at 77,667 dollars in the reading of Tuesday, 15 September at 07:43, and at 75,884 dollars in the reading of Wednesday, 16 September at 07:43, which is 1,783 dollars or 2.30 percent lower. TGJU recorded 75,801 dollars this same morning and reports Tuesday's trading range as 76,680 to 79,599 dollars. Bitcoin Cash moved the other way, standing 1.79 percent higher at 220.09 dollars, and Tether Gold at 4,325.6 dollars is effectively level with spot gold.

The driver is a published decision with a specific date. The Federal Reserve decides on interest rates today, Wednesday 16 September. More than 10 major Wall Street banks expect a 0.25 percent increase, and the CME FedWatch tool prices an 87.3 percent probability of it; a similar tool on Investing.com showed a 91.8 percent probability of the rate reaching the 3.75 to 4 percent range as of 11:35am ET on 15 September, up from 89.5 percent the previous day. A 0.3 percent rise in core consumer prices in August and oil climbing back above 100 dollars have been cited as reasons for the shift in expectations (Arzdigital, Tuesday 15 September). The second driver is internal to the crypto market: the US Senate vote on the crypto market structure bill known as the CLARITY Act was set for 15 September, and falling hopes of its passage coincided, according to Arzdigital, with Tuesday's decline. The relationship between those two and the price is a reported coincidence, not an effect this data proves.

And the domestic rate, which is the operative figure for an Iranian buyer. Tether stands at 231,079 toman this morning. Its ratio to the free market dollar has flipped again: tether is now 684 toman above Tuesday's free dollar close, that is 0.30 percent above it, whereas in our report yesterday the same tether stood 0.58 percent below the free dollar. Two standing caveats apply: the two readings are not taken at the same hour and the ratio must be measured again once the banknote market opens today, and TGJU recorded 231,211 toman for this same morning, so the tether range is 231,079 to 231,211 toman. The difference in kind between the two figures also has to be kept in mind: bitcoin is measured in dollars and the toman tether rate carries the exchange rate inside it, so a dollar decline in bitcoin does not necessarily reach its toman price by the same amount.

Beyond price, two institutional developments were recorded. The Bank of Russia, in its 2027 to 2029 policy document, listed cryptocurrencies and stablecoins among the major threats to the country's monetary sovereignty and called for tougher enforcement against unlicensed platforms, while keeping the use of crypto in international trade settlement permitted. And DeFi Development, listed on Nasdaq under the ticker DFDV, increased its Solana treasury holdings by 55,491 units, worth approximately 5.78 million dollars, and launched a share offering programme of up to 300 million dollars (Arzdigital, Tuesday 15 September).

8. Iron and Steel

The rebar family has taken no new settlement on the Iran Mercantile Exchange since Wednesday, 9 September, and four trading sessions have passed since then: 12, 13, 14 and 15 September. This is a real gap in trading, not a feed delay. The last settlements: A3 deformed rebar sizes 14 to 20 at 85,810 toman per kg and sizes 22 to 32 at 87,272 toman.

The factory side held flat in Tuesday's session, and Arian Foulad's recorded rates are the same figures as Monday's: 14 A3 rebar at 92,270 toman, 12 A3 at 93,090 toman, 10 A3 at 93,640 toman, 12 A2 at 92,360 toman and 10 A2 at 93,550 toman. For size 14 rebar, the gap between the factory rate and the last IME settlement for the same size is 6,460 toman, or 7.53 percent, which is exactly yesterday's figure, because both ends have held still. The mechanism is clear and will persist until an offering takes place: without an offering the IME board produces no new number. Alongside this, SENA reported that buyers of rebar deposit certificates have earned a 122 percent return over the instrument's 11 months of operation on the exchange (SENA, 15 September). In global markets, Shanghai rebar stands at 3,131 yuan per tonne, up 6 yuan or 0.19 percent (Wednesday 16 September, 07:04).

9. Cars

The car market was quiet on Tuesday and produced no new reading. The Dena Plus Turbo Automatic Optional model 1405 was recorded at 3,380,000,000 toman and the 1404 model at 3,250,000,000 toman, the Dena Plus 6 speed at 2,470,000,000 toman for 1405 and 2,370,000,000 toman for 1404, and the Dena Plus low option 1404 at 2,270,000,000 toman; all five rows unchanged from the prior reading, which makes it a second consecutive session without movement.

On the board, however, both carmakers closed green and their direction was the reverse of the previous session: Khesapa (SAIPA) rose 2.99 percent to close at 75.8 toman with a buy queue, and Khodro (Iran Khodro) rose 0.94 percent to 75.2 toman, while that same symbol faced a sell queue of 1,788 million shares yesterday morning. Gedna on the Farabourse closed 2.69 percent lower at 759 toman. The distance between a carmaker's share and the price of a car should not be collapsed: the car market price held still on Tuesday, and what moved was the share price.

10. Building Materials

Cement took a new settlement on Tuesday, 15 September, and fell for a second consecutive session. Type 2 (42.5) bulk cement settled at a volume weighted average of 26,250 rial per kg, equal to 2,625 toman, down 65 toman or 2.42 percent from Monday's 2,690 toman settlement. Type 2 (32.5) bulk settled at 2,509.8 toman and type 5 (42.5) bulk at 2,927.2 toman. The standing caveat applies: an IME settlement is that day's volume weighted average across every producer that sold, so an 11 percent jump and two consecutive declines within four sessions show a change in the mix of sellers more than they show a trend.

The gap between the official board and the retail shelf widened again for that reason. Bulk type 2 cement from the Tehran plant was recorded on Tuesday at 3,217 toman per kg and from the Abyek plant at 3,230 toman, that is about 22.6 percent above the 2,625 toman IME settlement; yesterday the same gap was 19.6 percent and the session before that 9.7 percent. A 50 kg bag of Tehran cement is 240,000 toman and Abyek 227,000 toman. The gap between bulk and bagged by definition contains the cost of the bag, packaging and distribution, and should not be read as a profit margin. On the board, cement funds were uniformly green: Simania 3 percent higher at 4,097.8 toman, Simano 2.05 percent higher at 4,347.6 toman and Simana 1.63 percent higher at 4,190 toman.

11. Regional and Global View

Brent crude stands at 108.01 dollars this morning and is holding above 107 dollars for a fourth session; SENA described today's trend in global markets as the stability of oil in the 107 dollar range with interest rate pressure on gold and silver. Iranian light crude for delivery to northwest Europe rose 2.36 percent to 105.25 dollars a barrel and heavy crude 2.41 percent to 103.35 dollars (Donya-e-Eqtesad citing Mehr, Tuesday 15 September). The channel to Tehran is direct for both: Brent moves export revenue as well as the freight and insurance cost of imports. The supply backdrop remains the Strait of Hormuz: Reuters reported that vessel transits through Hormuz fell to 14 a day over the weekend, and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil flows through Hormuz averaged 10 million barrels a day over the past week, about two thirds of pre war levels.

In global financial markets, SENA reported, citing Bloomberg, that the yield on 10 year US Treasury debt has passed 5 percent; that same rise in yields, moving in step with the expected Federal Reserve hike, explains the pressure on non yielding assets such as gold and on risk assets. From East Asia, China's industrial output rose 5.2 percent year on year in August, ahead of forecasts, but retail sales grew just 0.4 percent, car sales fell 18.5 percent, fixed asset investment fell 7.2 percent over the first eight months and property investment fell 19.9 percent, while the urban unemployment rate reached 5.3 percent (EcoIran, Tuesday 15 September). The channel from these figures to Tehran runs through Chinese demand for oil and base metals, and the weakness in China's domestic consumption alongside the strength of its industrial exports are two opposing signals for commodity prices.

In the regional corridors, Tuesday evening's readings are: UAE dirham 63,070 toman, Chinese yuan 34,610 toman, Turkish lira 4,825 toman, Russian rouble 2,744 toman and 100 Iraqi dinars 14,790 toman. From West Asia, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Tuesday that Iran's security and stability directly affect the countries of the region, and called on both sides to end the war through diplomatic means (Donya-e-Eqtesad, Tuesday 15 September). And US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claimed that the United Arab Emirates had made encouraging statements about cutting financial ties with Iran; as of that report, neither the UAE nor China had officially responded to the claim (Donya-e-Eqtesad citing Tasnim, Tuesday 15 September).

12. Conclusion

Today's verdict is this: Tuesday was the day retail money came back, not simply the day the index set a record. Any board will show you the 7,521,959 record, but the figure that separates this session from other green sessions is the 10,221 million share net retail purchase, which within our recorded 30 day window only 17 August exceeded. Sahmino's reading from yesterday settles here, and it held: we said the gap between the two dollar rates would stay above 60,000 toman as long as the remittance rate stayed below 170,000 toman, and on Tuesday the gap closed at 65,507 toman with the remittance rate at 164,888 toman, so both the level and the condition held. The one thing to remember is this: when the index sets a record, look first at who was buying, because a record that retail buys and a record that institutions hold are two different things. You can read Sahmino's reading from yesterday alongside this one. Sahmino's new reading: the Tehran Stock Exchange main index stays above 7.4 million points, as long as retail investors do not turn net sellers on the Tehran board; the level of this reading is 7,400,000 points, its horizon is the end of the week, and a close of the main index below 7,393,272 points, Monday 14 September's close, invalidates it (reading dated 16 September 2026).

13. What to Watch Today

• The 9:00 open on the Tehran Stock Exchange and the fate of the pre opening buy queues on Foulad (275 million shares), Nouri (76 million shares), Vapasar and Mobin; and whether net retail buying stays positive for a second consecutive session.
• The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision today and its effect on spot gold, bitcoin and Brent crude; markets price an 87.3 percent probability of a 0.25 percent increase.
• The start of the subscription period for the Mana Mellat currency fund today, the capital market's first currency fund, in which applicants must buy at least 10 investment units of 10 dollars each.
• The number of industries closing higher in today's session, to establish whether the recovery from 11 to 34 industries is durable or a single session event.
• The first banknote market pricing today and which way the gap between the free dollar and the Exchange Centre remittance rate goes, after narrowing 1,398 toman yesterday to stand at 65,507 toman.
• A new settlement for the rebar family on the IME, last recorded on 9 September, with the factory rate holding 7.53 percent above it.
• The result of the fifteenth Islamic treasury bond auction of 1405, which was on yesterday's calendar, and the US Senate vote on the CLARITY Act. Sahmino's market calendar shows the events ahead at a glance.