Iran Market Pulse: Weekly Review, Thursday, 25 June 2026 (4 Tir 1405)

Weekly Snapshot (30 Khordad to 3 Tir 1405 / 20 to 24 June 2026)

Currency: Free-Market Dollar Holds the 160,000 Channel

The free-market US dollar in Tehran traded in the 160,000 to 161,500 tomans (1,600,000 to 1,615,000 rials) range through the week ending Wednesday, 3 Tir 1405 (24 June 2026), with no meaningful net move. (Sources: ilna.ir, eghtesadonline.com, khabaronline.ir; as of market close, 3 Tir 1405 / 24 June 2026)

The official "agreed" rate (narkh-e tavafoghi) published by Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center (market.ice.ir) was unavailable for this period and is not reported here. The euro cross-rate is estimated at approximately 179,000 to 181,000 tomans based on the EUR/USD cross (no direct domestic quote was available).

For context: the free-market dollar stood at roughly 83,680 tomans in Tir 1404 (June 2025); the dollar has risen approximately 93% against the rial in the open market over the past year, which means the rial has lost about 48% of its value. (Source: open-market data)

Why stable? Two opposing forces kept the dollar range-bound this week: the DXY (US dollar index) climbed to its highest level in over a year, applying upward pressure, while reports of progress in US-Iran nuclear talks dampened domestic dollar-demand expectations.

Gold and Coin: Pressure from the Global Spot Market

The price of one gram of 18-karat gold in Tehran reached 16,085,200 tomans on Wednesday, 3 Tir 1405 (24 June 2026), broadly unchanged from the prior day. (Sources: sharghdaily.com, fararu.com)

The Emami bahar-e azadi full coin (Iran's benchmark gold coin) traded at approximately 163,000,000 tomans on the same date; the half-coin (nim-seke) at 84,800,000 tomans and the quarter-coin (rob'-e seke) at 48,650,000 tomans. (Sources: sharghdaily.com, entekhab.ir, eghtesadonline.com)

The coin premium (habab-e seke, the gap between the market price and the coin's intrinsic gold value) is estimated at approximately 3,000,000 tomans, or about 1.9% above intrinsic value, based on cross-calculation using spot gold (~$3,997/oz) and the free-market dollar (~161,000 tomans).

Global gold spot (XAU) fell approximately 3.6% (roughly $152) to around $3,997/oz during the sessions of 3 and 4 Tir 1405 (24 and 25 June 2026). (Sources: an economic data service, cnbc.com)

Key driver: A stronger DXY and rising expectations for continued Federal Reserve tightening pushed global gold lower, which in turn reduced the intrinsic toman value of the coin.

Stocks: A Volatile Week, 5.16 Million Touched and Lost

The Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) had a volatile week ending 3 Tir 1405 (24 June 2026):

• Saturday, 30 Khordad (20 June): TEDPIX rose 9,009 points (+0.17%), opening the week on a positive note. Retail investor trading value hit an exceptional 47,654 billion tomans, the second-highest single-session retail trading record in TSE history. (Source: nabzebourse.com)
• Sunday, 31 Khordad (21 June): Detailed session data unavailable.
• Monday, 1 Tir (22 June): A red session; the index retreated under selling pressure ("the red start of summer at the glass hall"). (Source: andishemoaser.ir)
• Tuesday, 2 Tir (23 June): Strong recovery; TEDPIX surged 88,224 points (+1.74%); equity trading value reached 19,800 billion tomans. (Source: taadolnewspaper.ir)
• Wednesday, 3 Tir (24 June), final session: Correction; TEDPIX fell 53,381 points and closed around 5,072,000 points. The equal-weight index (shakhes ham-vazn) dropped 16,788 points to about 1,325,000. Combined TSE and FaraBourse (OTC market) trading value exceeded 57 trillion tomans (57 hemat). FaraBourse closed at 38,215 points. (Source: aftabnews.ir)

Weekly summary: The TEDPIX touched the 5.16 million level for the first time this week but could not sustain it. Wednesday's correction left the index below 5.1 million by week end. High trading volumes on both the up and down days point to active two-sided participation.

Crypto: Bitcoin Under Dollar Pressure

Bitcoin (BTC) traded around $62,729 on Wednesday, 3 Tir 1405 (24 June 2026), down approximately 4.5% on the week. BTC stood roughly $14,000 below its recent peak of $77,623 reached in late Ordibehesht 1405 (late May 2026). (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Ethereum (ETH) was at approximately $1,665 on the same date, broadly flat versus the prior session. (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Tether (USDT) traded in the 161,000 to 164,900 tomans range on Iranian exchanges around 3 Tir, a small premium above the free-market dollar rate, which is normal for Iran's crypto market. (Source: ramzarz.news)

Spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States recorded their sixth consecutive week of net outflows, totalling $5.94 billion, though Wednesday saw $39 million in net inflows. (Source: Yahoo Finance)

Why lower? BTC's high correlation with risk assets persisted this week; a stronger DXY and Fed tightening expectations weighed on both gold and crypto simultaneously.

Steel: Relative Stability

Iran's steel and iron market had a relatively calm week during early Tir 1405. Grade-14 ribbed rebar (from Esfahan mills) was quoted in the physical market at 60,000 to 68,500 tomans per kilogram, depending on mill, size, and delivery terms. (Source: the domestic steel market; dated 2 Tir 1405 / 23 June 2026)

Detailed IME (Iran Mercantile Exchange) offering and settlement data for the metals segment this week was unavailable.

Background factors: Progress in nuclear talks and lower oil prices have kept alive market expectations of a gradual easing of sanctions, which could affect the exchange-rate component of steel production costs over the medium term. Until a definitive outcome is reached, the market remains in a wait-and-see mode.

Cars: Factory Raised Prices; Market Fell

The first week of Tir 1405 brought a notable contradiction to the car market: factory prices were raised from Monday, 1 Tir (22 June), while open-market prices simultaneously declined.

• Dena Plus automatic: market price ~2,645,000,000 tomans (down ~50 million vs. prior week)
• Dena Plus 6-speed manual: market price ~2,100,000,000 tomans (down ~100 million)
• Peugeot 207 automatic panorama: market price ~2,650,000,000 tomans (down ~60 million)
• Peugeot 206 (used, 2003 model): ~600,000,000 tomans
• Pride sedan (used, 2009 model): ~410,000,000 tomans

(Sources: bankavl.com, taadolnewspaper.ir; dated 1 Tir 1405 / 22 June 2026)

The market margin (premium of open-market price over factory price) narrowed across most models during the week.

Why? Market participants are pricing in potential progress toward a nuclear deal, which could facilitate car imports and compress secondary-market premiums. (Source: andishemoaser.ir)

Building Materials: Cement Holds Steady

The cement market had a quiet week in early Tir 1405. Type-2 bagged cement (50 kg per sack) traded at wholesale prices of 253,000 to 255,000 tomans in Tehran. (Sources: sivanland.com, taadolnewspaper.ir; dated 2 Tir 1405 / 23 June 2026)

No new supply or demand pressures entered the market and prices remained stable. IME cement deposit certificate data was unavailable for this week.

The onset of summer typically reduces construction activity in parts of Iran, which may affect seasonal cement demand in the coming weeks.

Global Backdrop: Strong Dollar, Soft Oil

The headline development in global markets this week was oil falling to its lowest since late Esfand 1403 (late February 2026):

• Brent crude: ~$73.33/bbl (Wednesday, 3 Tir / 24 June 2026, lowest since late February 2026). (Source: fortune.com)
• WTI crude: ~$69.65 to $70/bbl. (Source: oilpriceapi.com)
• DXY (US Dollar Index): ~101.61; highest in over a year. (Source: an economic data service)
• Gold spot (XAU): ~$3,997/oz (down ~3.6%). (Source: cnbc.com)
• S&P 500: ~7,342 points (down ~0.3%). (Source: an economic data service)

Oil's decline was attributed to two developments: (1) increased tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz; and (2) progress in US-Iran nuclear talks, which eased supply-disruption concerns. Goldman Sachs cut its Q4 2026 Brent price forecast from $90 to $80 per barrel and said Persian Gulf crude exports are likely to return to pre-conflict levels by the end of Tir 1405 (end of July 2026). (Source: fortune.com)

The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged at its most recent meeting, but officials signalled openness to another hike in September 2026. Markets are pricing approximately a 70% probability of a rate increase at that meeting. These expectations bolstered the DXY and weighed on gold and crypto. (Source: an economic data service)

What to Watch Next Week

In the coming week (Saturday, 5 Tir to Wednesday, 10 Tir 1405 / 27 June to 1 July 2026), the following are worth tracking:

• Equities: The TSE reopens on Saturday, 5 Tir (27 June) after the two-day holiday. Whether the 5 million TEDPIX floor holds and the direction of retail money flows on the first session are key points to observe.
• IME (Iran Mercantile Exchange): Weekly steel, petrochemical, and cement offerings take place; the base price of rebar and settlement rates relative to the physical market are worth monitoring.
• Currency: Any announcement from the Currency Exchange Center or Central Bank regarding the official "agreed" rate (narkh-e tavafoghi) or industrial FX supply is worth watching.
• Nuclear talks: Any sign of progress or stalling in US-Iran negotiations could move the dollar rate, car prices, and equity sentiment quickly.
• Global data: The US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report for June is scheduled this week and will directly influence Fed rate expectations and the DXY.