Drivers
Domestic gold's rally these days is coming more from the currency than the global market. 18-karat gold rose from 23,363,000 tomans on September 17 to 25,694,400 tomans on October 1, a gain of nearly 10 percent in about two weeks. Over the same window, Mehr News Agency reported (October 1, 13:16) 18-karat gold in Tehran at 25,596,800 tomans per gram, consistent with our own data. But global spot gold fell from $4,343 on September 17 to $4,175 on October 1, down about 3.9 percent. In other words, the main driver of domestic gold's jump was not the global price but the free-market dollar, which rose from 2,279,000 rials on September 17 to 2,584,650 rials on October 1, a gain of nearly 13.4 percent. Donya-e-Eqtesad separately reported the free-market dollar at 257,960 tomans as of 14:11 on October 1, in the same range. At the same time, the US 10-year Treasury yield reached 5.34 percent, its highest since 2002, which Mehr News Agency said has strengthened the dollar in global markets; that pressure has reached Iran's domestic gold market through the free-market dollar channel, not through the global gold price.