Justice Shares and the Summer That Was Promised: Where the File Really Stands, and What Liberalization Would Mean for the Tehran Bourse (Thursday, 23 July 2026)

About a month ago, Seyed Ali Madanizadeh, Iran's Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance, said he hoped that, after more than a decade of standstill, people would experience the "sweetness of the reopening and liberalization of Justice Shares" in the summer of 2026. Today is Thursday, 23 July 2026 (1 Mordad 1405): precisely mid-summer. This report does three things: it shows where the file actually stands, it fact-checks three recurring claims now circulating online, and it takes up a question rarely asked amid the clamor of "when can we sell": if tens of millions of people are allowed to sell at once, what happens to the bourse itself? This is not buy or sell advice.

Today's status at a glance

What the promise is, and who made it

On the latest status, Madanizadeh has said the Justice Shares liberalization process was approved some months ago by the Supreme Council of the Bourse, and that under that resolution the Securities and Exchange Organization is to begin the process "at the appropriate time." This is the same promise the economy minister made when he announced in July 2026 that operational liberalization would start this summer. In parallel, officials of the SEO and the Ministry of Economy speak of finalizing a directive meant to clarify the status of the provincial investment companies, how they are run, and the mechanism for trading Justice Shares.

Two important details in this promise usually get lost in the reposts. First, per ISNA, the design distinguishes between direct and indirect Justice Shares holders; that is, all beneficiaries probably will not face a single, simultaneous mechanism. Second, and more important for today's discussion, Madanizadeh stated late last year that the government had reached a solution to carry out liberalization "in a way that does not cause the bourse to fall." That sentence is itself an admission that a risk exists; we return to it.

The core knot: general meetings that are not held

Justice Shares are not directly in the beneficiaries' hands; a large portion is managed through the provincial investment companies. Until these companies hold general meetings, have their legal governing bodies established, and see their symbols become tradable, liberalization effectively remains on paper.

Madanizadeh has called this the most important prerequisite and said the necessary steps to hold the meetings have begun; and where meetings have not been held, the prosecutor's office has been asked, under the Commercial Code, to compel these companies' governing bodies to convene a meeting, with legal action to follow in case of refusal. When resolving an administrative knot reaches the point of prosecutorial intervention, that itself is a measure of how deep the problem runs. That short sentence is the best explanation for the question "why has it taken so long."

A fresh dispute has now been added to this knot. In mid-July 2026, members of parliament's economic commission and the cooperatives-and-Justice-Shares faction, in a letter to the Speaker, objected to the SEO's new directive on the liberalization mechanism and called for it to be revised. In other words, even on the "how" of liberalization there is not yet full consensus among the decision-making bodies; this factor raises the odds of the timeline slipping.

Why shareholders are cautious: a decade of promises

To judge this year's promise fairly, you have to see the file's calendar:

The pattern is clear: liberalization began with the 2020 directive, but the provincial investment companies were left in limbo because of problems holding meetings, registering capital increases, establishing governing bodies, and halted trading symbols. Business media have written plainly that the experience of past years has made many shareholders wary of repeated promises. This caution is not pessimism; it is an inference from the data.

Three recurring claims that need fact-checking

1. "A new dividend will be deposited by the end of summer"

What the sources show: the Justice Shares dividend was last deposited in June 2026, as the second tranche of the dividend for the fiscal year ended 19 March 2025, and that payment was the final settlement between the underlying companies and the beneficiaries. Before that, the first part of the fiscal-year-2024 dividend had been deposited on 17 January 2026, which also included the remaining 2023 dividend.

In other words, the 2024-25 period has been settled. The next dividend naturally relates to fiscal-year-2025 performance, and its payment requires holding the underlying companies' general meetings and setting the cash dividend per share. Until official bodies announce a schedule, waiting for a deposit SMS is fruitless. "Deposit by month-end" reports have no official backing at this point.

2. "Latecomer registration has opened"

The Privatization Organization has officially stated that there is no plan to allocate Justice Shares to new people and that any news to that effect is fodder for online fraudsters. The number of "latecomers" is cited in reports at around 19 million people, but the existence of this queue does not mean registration is open. This claim currently has no official basis.

3. "My basket is worth such-and-such"

Here one must be honest: the figures quoted these days for the value of the 532,000-toman basket diverge sharply across sources. In the June-to-July 2026 window, numbers from roughly 8.7 million to 15 million tomans, and in some reports far larger figures (probably reflecting a confusion of the rial and toman units), have been published. A Shargh report on 16 July 2026 put the figure at around 11 million tomans.

There are two reasons for this divergence. The valid one: the basket's value is built from the closing prices of the 33 listed companies inside it, so it rises and falls with daily market swings; and the Tehran bourse was highly volatile in July 2026, from eight consecutive down sessions to a rebound to around the 4,884,000-point level of the total index at the close on 22 July. The invalid one: part of these figures is simply careless reposting.

The practical takeaway for the reader: do not rely on any number circulating in channels. The only credible reference is the official inquiry system of the Central Securities Depository (Samat), which provides the value based on the previous day's closing prices and broken down by company.

What Justice Shares are actually made of

To understand why the basket's value fluctuates and why liberalization matters for the bourse, you have to see its composition. Justice Shares comprise 33 listed companies and 12 unlisted companies, and these companies' profits are aggregated and paid to beneficiaries' accounts.

In terms of scope, per a Donya-e-Eqtesad report, more than 49.12 million people received Justice Shares with a nominal value of up to one million tomans. Some other sources put the figure at around 44 million people; we record that discrepancy honestly. The payment mechanism was not uniform either: for the three lowest income deciles, including welfare recipients of the Imam Khomeini Relief Foundation, the Welfare Organization, the disabled, and needy veterans, it was free, while for others 50 percent of the price was to be paid from future years' dividend proceeds and the government was to cover the other 50 percent.

The market question that is rarely asked

This is exactly where this file turns from a livelihood story into a capital-market matter.

If tens of millions of people whose assets have been locked for years are allowed to sell at once, the supply side on the Tehran bourse faces pressure of a different nature than ordinary supply: a large share of these holders are not professional investors, do not have a long-term holding horizon, and many are under livelihood pressure. That is, the probability of "selling to cash out" is high, regardless of whether a stock is fundamentally attractive.

The government itself recognizes this risk; Madanizadeh's insistence that liberalization be done so as not to cause the bourse to fall points precisely at this. The designs floated, from splitting direct and indirect holders to allowing the use of "part" of the resources, are all signs of an effort to make supply gradual.

For an active Tehran bourse shareholder, the practical meaning is: the timing and mechanism of liberalization are themselves a market variable. Any credible news on this, especially on the volume and speed of supply, can shift expectations.

The balancing point: liberalization is not necessarily only selling pressure. Some holders may hold, and formalizing these companies' trading could help market transparency and depth. The net size of the effect depends on the mechanism and speed of execution, which have not yet been announced.

Fraud warning: take this section seriously

Every time this file heats up, a wave of fraud rises with it. The Central Securities Depository has warned that cybercriminals, by sending SMS messages under the guise of dividend deposits or latecomer registration and steering people to fake pages, try to withdraw money from their accounts. The FATA cyber police also warned in July 2026 about Justice Shares dividend SMS fraud.

Simple safety rules:

• No payment is required to receive a Justice Shares dividend. Any message asking you for money is fake.
• Do not click unknown links; never give anyone your bank card details, second password, SMS code, or brokerage password.
• Follow Justice Shares news only from the Central Securities Depository site and official media.
• If your IBAN is not registered or up to date, go through that same official channel; part of the past delays stemmed from incomplete banking data. Familiarity with the Sejam system and the trading code is useful for this.

Bottom line

As of today, 23 July 2026, the promise of Justice Shares liberalization this summer remains a promise, not an event. The framework has been approved by the Supreme Council of the Bourse and the directive is being finalized, but the main precondition, holding the provincial investment companies' general meetings, is still unfinished in some provinces, so much so that the prosecutor has been drawn in and the parliament's economic commission has objected to the new directive. Buying and selling remain locked, and no firm date has been announced.

Meanwhile, three recurring online claims have no official backing: a new dividend deposit by the end of summer, the opening of latecomer registration, and the exact basket-value figures circulating in channels. The only reference is the official Central Securities Depository system. And one point that is said less often: liberalization, whenever it comes, is not only good news for holders; it is also an important variable for the whole Tehran bourse, because the mechanism and speed of supply matter at least as much as the execution date itself. This is not buy or sell advice and is merely a framework for following this file more closely.

What to watch

• An official SEO announcement on the timing and mechanism of liberalization. This is the only reliable signal, not public remarks and not channel reposts.
• Progress in holding the provincial investment companies' general meetings and reopening their symbols. This is the real measure of progress.
• The fate of the parliament economic commission's objection and how the final directive is revised.
• Details on the cap and speed of supply, the key to gauging the market effect.
• The timing of the fiscal-year-2025 dividend after the underlying companies' meetings are held.
• Upcoming events on the Sahmino calendar.