The Hormuz Deal Is at the Door; the Market Paid 4.4 Percent Just for the News That Talks Had Started, and Signing Is a Far Bigger Event (Tuesday, 4 August 2026)

The agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is at the door. Put together the picture from Tuesday 4 August 2026: the US President reposts an item saying the deal is about to be finalised, his Treasury Secretary says it could land today or tomorrow, an Arab network reports a joint Iran and Oman statement within hours, and the Guardian's diplomatic editor writes that the route Oman is accepting was largely designed by Iran itself.

And here is the number that frames all of it: Iran's market has so far priced only the news that talks had begun, and that alone was worth 4.4 percent on the all share index across two sessions. Signing the document is a far bigger event than starting the conversation.

What is coming

At 18:49 today Donald Trump reposted on Truth Social an item stating that "the agreement is on the verge of being finalized." The US Treasury Secretary claimed the same day that a deal could be reached today or tomorrow. At 16:59 and 17:13 the Al-Hadath network, citing a senior source, said the announcement of full reopening arrangements might come within hours or tomorrow, and that a joint Iran and Oman statement would be issued.

More important than the speed is the shape of the deal. A senior Iranian official told Press TV on 4 August that the Iran and Oman talks centre on establishing a new corridor guaranteeing safe passage for shipping while preserving Iran's sovereign interests as a littoral state. Patrick Wintour, diplomatic editor of the Guardian, wrote at 17:18 that Oman, under pressure from the United States, Europe and Saudi Arabia, is accepting a route largely designed on Iran's initiative, with ships entering the strait through waters under Iranian control. The New York Times wrote on 4 August that the outcome could amount to practical acceptance of Iran's role in managing the world's most important oil export passage.

Do not underrate that detail. The agreement taking shape does not weaken Iran's position, it entrenches it. A market that understands this prices it differently from a retreat.

Scale: what did the market pay just for talks starting?

This figure anchors every projection that follows. Talks opened on 3 August, and the market's response was:

• Sunday 2 August 2026: TEDPIX at 5,154,059 points, up 1.96 percent.
• Monday 3 August 2026: TEDPIX at 5,277,352 points, up 123,295 points or 2.39 percent. Donya-e-Eqtesad reported the same day that the index passed the 5.2 million level, and Kalakhabar recorded the gain at 123,281 points.
• The two sessions together: 4.4 percent, with an inflow of 5.8 hemat (one hemat is 10 trillion rial) of retail money per Boursenews on 4 August.

That is 4.4 percent in two sessions purely for the news that talks had begun, with no signed document at all. Hold that scale in mind: it is the floor of the comparison, not the ceiling.

Channel one: freight cost, the fastest route

The most tangible effect of reopening is the removal of alternative routes. Sahmino recorded on 3 August 2026 that six Saudi tankers took the 56 day route around Africa, raising the cost of each voyage by 2 to 2.5 million dollars. Every day the strait stays open strips that surcharge out of the region's supply chain.

The strait was never fully closed: CNN reported on 3 August 2026, citing shipping sources, that three to five million barrels of crude a day still leave the Persian Gulf by the southern route near the Omani coast. So what reopening restores is not absolute volume but cost, insurance and time, and that is what lands fastest in the earnings of shipping, ports and import driven companies.

Channel two: the exchange rate, where pricing has already started

The currency market did not wait for a signature. Today, 4 August, with money changers closed, tether fell 2 percent by 18:22 to 189,496 toman, and the live unofficial dollar quote at 19:20 was 188,750 toman to sell, while the posted free market rate has stood unchanged at 192,880 toman since the close of 3 August. Both live gauges trade roughly 4,000 toman below the board: the board already has ground to make up.

Measure the depth against a reference point: the free dollar reached an intraday high of 194,520 toman on Saturday 1 August 2026, a fourth record in two weeks. The distance from that peak to today's live rate is close to 3 percent, and that is before any signature.

In coins the pattern was sharper: the Emami premium (the coin's price above its gold content) deflated 29.16 percent in a single day on 3 August 2026 to 1,639,000 toman, while the coin itself rose 0.55 percent. The coin's price held; the fear priced on top of it did not. That 29 percent speed is the best evidence of how fast a risk premium empties out in Iran's market once its driver is removed.

Channel three: the bourse, where the winners change

This is where precision matters, because it is the difference between a professional report and a slogan. Reopening is unambiguously positive for the country, but its effect on the board is not uniform.

TEDPIX carries a heavy weight of petrochemicals, base metals and refiners, companies whose earnings track two inputs: the exchange rate and global commodity prices. A Hormuz deal pushes both down. Brent traded at 80.50 dollars at 18:19 on 4 August 2026, down 3.92 percent, and Khabaronline reported the same day a 4 percent drop in oil driven by hopes of a deal.

Against that, three groups see input costs fall and benefit most: transport, shipping and ports, which gain directly from normalised routing; import driven sectors such as pharmaceuticals and parts of consumer industry; and companies reliant on domestic demand, which benefit as inflation expectations subside.

The rotation is already on the tape: on 3 August TEDPIX rose 2.39 percent while the equal weight index rose 2.50 percent to 1,497,818 points. Equal weight leading means money moved toward small and mid caps.

Projection: if the document is signed

This section is a projection, built on this market's observed behaviour over the past two weeks. None of it is a recommendation to buy or sell.

The base expectation: a market that paid 4.4 percent across two sessions for hearing that talks had started has no reason to pay less for seeing the document. The order of response is predictable too. Currency first, because live rates already sit about 2 percent below the board and that gap has to close. Coins next, whose 29 percent premium deflation showed how quickly they empty. Then equities, which react later but more broadly, with leadership staying in transport and domestically driven names.

The single determining variable is the publication of the joint Iran and Oman statement, which as of this report has not yet been issued. Until it is, traders are trading the headline rather than the document; and on the day it lands, the scale of the response starts from the 4.4 percent of the last two sessions.

Bottom line

The core point: Iran's market has still only priced the news that talks began, and that was worth 4.4 percent across two sessions. Signing the Hormuz agreement is a far bigger event, and it arrives through three channels: freight and insurance costs, the fastest route, stripping out the 2 to 2.5 million dollar surcharge per voyage around Africa; the exchange rate, already trading about 2 percent below the board; and the bourse, which responds later and by rotation.

And remember one thing: on the day after a deal, the composition of the winners changes. A lower exchange rate and a lower oil price are precisely the two inputs to petrochemical, metals and refining earnings, the heavyweights of TEDPIX. The equal weight index outrunning TEDPIX on 3 August was the first sign of that rotation, and probably not the last.

What to watch

• Publication of the joint Iran and Oman statement, and whether its text carries executive arrangements or is only a declaration of intent.
• The spread between tether and the posted US dollar rate in the opening hours; the gap closing confirms de-escalation.
• War risk insurance rates for shipping in the Persian Gulf, which respond to a real reopening before any other indicator.
• The ratio of the equal weight index's gain to TEDPIX's in coming sessions, as a gauge of where money is going.
• The path of the Emami coin premium after its 29 percent drop on 3 August, and how export oriented sectors respond to Brent crude below 81 dollars.

For detail on the last session before the closure, see the report on Tehran's three indices on Monday 3 August 2026.