Skip to main content
Up to 53% offSee the plans
Back to Learn

Lesson 40

Intermarket Analysis

Intermarket analysis follows economic channels between assets. Local gold depends on global metal price, the selected FX rate and local premiums; an exporter links commodity prices with costs and settlement; housing responds to household income, finance and supply.
Read in Persian

Sahmino editorial· 22 August· 2 min read· General

Intermarket analysis follows economic channels between assets. Local gold depends on global metal price, the selected FX rate and local premiums; an exporter links commodity prices with costs and settlement; housing responds to household income, finance and supply. Correlation summarises a chosen interval and does not identify causation or a fixed lead-lag rule. Compare aligned timestamps, currencies and return bases. Build a conditional explanation and ask what observation would contradict it rather than assuming every market must move in the same direction.

Worked example (hypothetical)

Global gold falls 5% and the local dollar quote rises 10%. Before premiums, their combined local-gold effect is 0.95 × 1.10 − 1 = +4.5%, not +5%. The components multiply.

Check your understanding

What invalidates “gold follows DXY inversely” as a universal rule? Episodes in which real rates, risk demand or local FX dominate. Check the actual components.

Sahmino AcademyEconomyIntermarket Analysis

Finished reading?

You decide when this step is read. Opening a page does not mark it complete.

Related articles

General · Educational

Compound Interest in an Inflationary Economy: Why a 23% Deposit Against 61.4% Inflation Returns Minus 24%

Compound interest is not a financial trick but a mathematical property that works in both directions. At 20 percent, 100 million tomans becomes about 3,834 million over 20 years, while simple interest yields only 600 million. But inflation compounds too: at the 61.4 percent annual inflation of Tir 1405 (July 2026), the purchasing power of cash halv…

8 min read · 29 July

General · Educational

Asset Allocation in Iran's Inflationary Economy: A Professional Framework for Building and Rebalancing a Portfolio

Asset allocation, not stock picking, explains most of a portfolio's return variability, yet the standard models assume what Iran lacks: a true risk-free asset and single-digit inflation. This article rewrites the framework for Iran's market: the shared currency anchor and false diversification, real versus nominal return, the true role of each asse…

19 min read · 16 July

Stocks · Analysis

Tehran's TEDPIX Rallied About 616% in 1398-99 and Gold Jumped 149% in 1403; Rasad Is Watching Four Markets for 1405 (Friday, October 2, 2026)

Tehran's TEDPIX index rose about 616% from mid-September 2019 to mid-August 2020, and 18-karat gold gained about 149% in Iranian year 1403 and about 118% in 1404, per Sahmino's own price archive. Now in 1405, with point-to-point inflation near 89% and the free dollar near 258,500 tomans, the question is which market rallies next, and what Rasad's d…

6 min read · 2 October

General · Market update

6,066,678 Points: Tehran's TEDPIX Breaks Through 6 Million for the First Time, Iran Market Pulse, Midday Saturday, Mordad 31, 1405 (August 22, 2026); US and UAE Both Ratchet Up Pressure on Iran

Midday Saturday, Mordad 31, 1405 (August 22, 2026): Tehran's TEDPIX jumped 1.91% to 6,066,678 points, breaking through 6 million for the first time; Farabourse rose 1.77%. In parallel, the US Treasury Secretary vowed the "toughest sanctions in history" on Iran, the UAE suspended all trade and financial ties with Iran "until further notice," and Bre…

12 min read · 22 August