Asia's thermal coal demand climbs as LNG shortfall bites; Rystad sees 70-million-tonne rise in 2026

The disruption to global LNG supply caused by the Strait of Hormuz crisis is pushing Asian power plants and industry to switch from gas to coal. According to energy consultancy Rystad Energy in a July 2026 assessment, Asian coal demand could rise by about 70 million tonnes in 2026 under a tight gas-market scenario.

The switching mechanism activates when spot LNG prices exceed thresholds of roughly $10.2 per million BTU in Japan and $10.5 in South Korea, while the forward Brent-linked LNG price for Japan in July 2026 is around $12.7. Japan leads the shift, with coal-fired generation up about 11 percent as gas output falls.

The move matters for the energy market and for coal-dependent metals and cement industries.