China's official manufacturing PMI fell to 49.2 in July, the first contraction since February

China's National Bureau of Statistics reported on Friday 31 July 2026 that the country's official manufacturing purchasing managers' index fell to 49.2 in July. The index stood at 50.3 in June and the market had expected 50.0. A reading below 50 signals contraction, and this is the first contraction in Chinese factory activity since February.

According to the release, the output sub-index dropped below 50 for the first time in five months, to 49.9 (from 51.4 in June), while new orders returned to contraction at 49.9 (from 51.2). Export orders fell to 49.0 (from 50.1) and the purchasing sub-index declined to 49.4 (from 51.4). On prices, input cost inflation eased but stayed elevated (53.2 against 54.2), while output prices fell the most in nine months, to 47.8.

China is the world's largest crude oil importer, so a slowdown in its industrial activity feeds through to commodity markets via oil and metals demand.