European natural gas tops €56/MWh, up over 29% in July on Hormuz crisis

Dutch TTF natural gas futures, Europe's benchmark, climbed above €56 per MWh late last week (Friday, 17 July), the highest in about four months. According to OilPrice, the contract has risen more than 15% over the past week and over 29% since the start of July.

The main driver is concern over global LNG supply. Qatar, one of the world's largest LNG exporters, halted a planned production increase after one of its tankers was attacked near the Strait of Hormuz. A prolonged disruption to Qatari exports could tighten the global market just as Europe scrambles to refill gas storage before winter.

Goldman Sachs has estimated that a full disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz could push European gas prices up by as much as 130%.