From Hormuz to the Black Sea, drone attacks on ships are redrawing global maritime trade routes

In a report published on Thursday 30 July 2026, attacks and threats around the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov were identified as disrupting commercial shipping routes and pushing up insurance and freight costs. Roughly 80% of global merchandise trade by volume moves by sea, so disrupting even one major corridor can tighten supply and raise prices for energy, food and consumer goods thousands of kilometres away.

David Roche, president and global strategist at Quantum Strategy, wrote in a July report that the fighting in the Sea of Azov and the Black Sea is the first maritime offensive conducted almost entirely with drones, supplemented by missiles, weapons that let smaller military forces threaten ships and ports cheaply. Quantum estimates that about 25% of Russia's grain exports and 25% to 30% of its Black Sea oil exports could be disrupted. Russia grows more than a fifth of internationally traded wheat.

Yevgeniya Gaber of the Atlantic Council said Russia's suspension of shipping through the Kerch Strait earlier this month has effectively closed a vital maritime corridor. Ukraine says it has degraded roughly one third of Russia's Black Sea fleet since 2022. Lars Jensen, chief executive of Vespucci Maritime, said he sees the next flashpoint not in the Strait of Hormuz but in the Panama Canal.