Goldman Sachs: Fed to Hold Rates Steady This Year, Against Markets' Over 80 Percent Pricing for a Hike

According to Ecoiran, Goldman Sachs chief US economist David Mericle said in an analysis published by Tuesday, August 11, 2026 (20 Mordad 1405) that the bank continues to believe the US Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady for the rest of this calendar year, even as the FedWatch tool shows markets now pricing an over 80 percent probability of at least one rate hike by year end. Mericle said June inflation data showed a marked easing in price pressures, and if core inflation continues its downward trend, another rate increase will not be needed. He added that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's tone after the central bank's latest meeting was milder than expected. The analysis comes as the recent jump in oil prices has left part of the market concerned about a revival of inflationary pressure and the need for a rate increase.