How Global Oil Markets Absorbed the Shock of the Strait of Hormuz Disruption

According to an Ecoiran analysis published Friday, 13 Shahrivar 1405 (September 4, 2026), disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, which before the war carried about 20 million barrels of oil a day, or 20 to 25 percent of the world's seaborne oil and gas trade, was initially seen as one of the biggest energy crises in a generation, with some forecasts warning oil prices could reach 150 to 200 dollars a barrel. Per the report, prices did cross 126 dollars a barrel but did not rise as much as those forecasts suggested.

Ecoiran writes that strategic and commercial reserves covered about 9 million barrels a day of the shortfall, the International Energy Agency coordinated the release of about 400 million barrels from global stockpiles, the United States raised its own exports to a new record, and alternative Saudi and Emirati pipelines to Red Sea ports and Fujairah covered about 6 million barrels a day of the disrupted flow. China's crude oil imports also fell by about 4 to 5 million barrels a day, reaching their lowest level in roughly eight years, easing significant pressure on the global market.