IMF Cuts Saudi Arabia's 2026 Growth Forecast to 1.7%, Third Downgrade in Six Months

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 1.7% in the July World Economic Outlook Update, published July 17 Tir 1405 (July 8, 2026). It is the IMF's third consecutive downgrade for Saudi Arabia in six months, down from 4.5% in January 2026 and 3.1% in April 2026. The Fund attributed the cut mainly to war-related disruption of oil exports and non-oil activity, including transport and tourism. At the same time, the IMF raised its 2027 growth forecast for Saudi Arabia to 5.5%, but conditioned that rebound on the Strait of Hormuz reopening fully by March 2027. The same report also cut the IMF's 2026 growth outlook for the wider West Asia region to 0.7%.