Peterson Institute: Iran war fiscal pressure clouds Saudi, Qatari and Emirati delivery on $4 trillion in US commitments

The Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) said in a 15 page analysis published Monday, September 14, 2026 (23 Shahrivar 1405), that the ongoing US and Israeli conflict with Iran has clouded whether Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE will deliver on nearly $4 trillion in economic commitments made to the United States under President Trump's "America First" agenda. The report said the war has weakened the three countries' fiscal positions and growth outlook and reduced their confidence in the US security umbrella in the Persian Gulf.

The International Monetary Fund cut its 2026 growth forecast for Qatar by 14.7 percentage points to 8.6 percent, for Saudi Arabia from 4.5 percent to 1.7 percent, and for the UAE from 5.6 percent to 1.7 percent. PIIE said Saudi Arabia's Public Investment Fund has cut the international share of its portfolio from 30 percent in 2020 to 20 percent over the past six years, and that Gulf governments may now prioritize domestic spending over US investment commitments.