Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index jumps to 41.4 in July, far above expectations

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's manufacturing activity index surged to 41.4 in July 2026, a sharp rise from 10.3 in June and far above the market forecast of around 13. Released Thursday, July 16, the reading points to the fastest expansion in the region's factory activity since November 2021.

The new orders index rose 10 points to 37.0 and the shipments index jumped 19 points to 33.7, while the employment index climbed to 10.0. Both price gauges stayed elevated, however: the prices paid index held at 53.9 and the prices received index rose 7 points to 27.4, signaling persistent cost pressures. Strong US industrial data alongside sticky inflation bears on the Federal Reserve's rate path and, in turn, the dollar and global gold.