US Federal Reserve holds rates at 3.5% to 3.75%; three members vote for a hike

The US Federal Reserve held its policy rate unchanged at 350 to 375 basis points (3.5% to 3.75%) on Wednesday, 29 July 2026. It was the second monetary policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, who took the post on 22 May 2026.

The committee's statement said inflation remains elevated relative to its 2% goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. Of the committee's 12 members, three (Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari and Lorie Logan) voted to raise rates by 25 basis points. Ahead of the announcement, CME Group's FedWatch tool put the probability of a hold at 66.3% and of an increase to the 375 to 400 basis point range at 33.7%.

US consumer prices rose 3.5% year on year in June 2026, down from 4.2% in May. The average price of a gallon of petrol in the United States stood at $4.09 as of 29 July, against $3.86 a month earlier and $2.98 on 28 February 2026, the day of the first US and Israeli strikes on Iran.