US refinery output reached 17 million barrels a day, the highest since September 2019, yet still short of world demand

According to the latest data from the US Energy Information Administration, published by Bloomberg and reported on Thursday, 30 July 2026, US refineries produced an average of 17 million barrels of fuels a day last week, the highest since September 2019. Even so, global gasoline and diesel markets remain short of supply.

The incentive behind the record is the refining margin. The ratio between crude prices and the main products made from it, the crack spread, has reached the highest level on record, hitting 70 dollars a barrel earlier this month. Matt Smith, director of commodity research at Kpler, told Bloomberg that super sized refining margins continue to encourage refiners to run as hard as possible, resulting in a solid draw on US crude inventories, which are already at low levels.

According to the analysis, the shortage has several roots: the crude and product export squeeze caused by the war in the Persian Gulf (whose states were significant product exporters before the war as well as crude exporters), refinery closures in Europe and elsewhere in the West, China's strict fuel export quota policy, and Russia's diesel export ban imposed after Ukrainian drone attacks on its refineries. Kpler has assessed China's policy as no less important to market tightness than the fall in Russian refining output. In the author's assessment, the situation could intensify ahead of winter as northern hemisphere countries build heating fuel stocks.