WMO says El Nino is intensifying, with central Pacific sea surface temperatures projected more than 2.9C above normal

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations weather agency, warned in its latest update released on Friday, 31 July 2026 (9 Mordad 1405), that a rapidly intensifying El Nino event is set to dominate global weather patterns in the coming months and to heighten the risk of heatwaves, drought and flooding around the world.

According to the report, sea surface temperatures in the central Pacific are projected to rise more than 2.9 degrees Celsius above normal. The WMO forecasts above normal temperatures across nearly all land areas, with the most intense heat signals across Africa, southern Europe, the Indian subcontinent, East Asia and South America. Scientists say the event could reach record intensity when it peaks in the second half of 2026, although computer model projections remain uncertain.

UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said «El Nino is not just on our doorstep, it is inside the house and turning up the heat», and urged states to halt new coal, oil and gas projects. WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo stressed that early warnings must translate into concrete government action. The phenomenon matters for Iranian markets through two channels: the effect of heat and drought on summer electricity consumption and the country's power supply gap, and its effect on global agricultural output and prices, which feed part of Iran's import basket.