The 1399 Twin Bubble

That Year the Price Was at Its Peak, Today It Is the Risk: The Lesson of 1399 for Stocks and Housing in 1405

In 1399 (2020 to 2021) the Tehran bourse peaked at a price-to-earnings ratio above 35 and a dollar market value up to 427 billion, while housing jumped 92 percent. Today, in Tir 1405 (July 2026), it is inverted: the bourse near a P/E of 6.4 and about 85 billion dollars, deeply discounted, and housing near its long-run dollar average but frozen, transactions down about 80 percent. The lesson of 1399: that year the price was at its peak; today the risk is.