Skip to main content
Up to 53% offSee the plans

Sahmino callsFarabourse

غویتاVITZBullish

VITZ (Vitana) filled its buy queue to today's price-band ceiling of 7,590 rials, but individual investors have net sold for a second straight session

Horizon: Short term (about 2 weeks, through end of Mehr 1405 / late October)

Price when published

7,590 rials

That dayup3.0%

Support

7,370 rials

Invalidation

6,400 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenunchanged0.0%

Conclusion

I keep the bullish view but with more caution than the last card: the trend and both moving averages stay bullish and no invalidation level has been touched, but two straight sessions of sizable net individual selling and the free dollar outrunning September's price hike are both warning signs. I put roughly 45 to 50 percent odds on the uptrend continuing with this intensity through the stated horizon; otherwise a pause or pullback toward the 6,980 to 7,370 rial channel is the more likely path.

The evidence

  • Today's last trade (Mehr 15, 10:41 Tehran) is 7,590 rials, up 2.99% from yesterday's close of 7,370 rials, pinned exactly at today's price-band ceiling (7,150 to 7,590 rials), with a 227-order buy queue and about 18 million shares in demand against zero supply.
  • That print sits 2.99% above the prior 52-week high of 7,370 rials (set at yesterday's close), and the price remains well above both the 20-day (6,528 rials) and 50-day (5,769.6 rials) moving averages, so the uptrend regime is intact.
  • Individuals net sold about 10.7 million shares on Mehr 14 and 7.2 million shares on Mehr 13; today's snapshot also shows net selling of about 1 million shares. Today's volume (about 3.8 million shares) stays far below the roughly 40.5 million share monthly average, so the buy-signal test is not met.
  • Iran's free-market dollar rose from 2,221,000 rials (16 Shahrivar) to 2,687,000 rials (13 Mehr), up about 21% in a month. Vitana raised biscuit prices about 30% on 17 Shahrivar, but the free dollar has since climbed a further 18.5%, eating into part of that fresh margin relief.
  • At a trailing EPS of 1,338 rials, VITZ trades at a P/E of 5.67 versus a sector average of 7.69 (as of Mehr 14), so even after this rally the name is priced below its sector. Note VITZ trades on the Second Market of Iran Fara Bourse, not the Tehran Stock Exchange; its own Fara Bourse all-share index is a separate figure from TEDPIX.

If it holds

If the closing price holds above 7,370 rials (yesterday's close), the uptrend and buy-queue pattern likely continue in the current channel until the monthly Codal activity report confirms whether sales revenue reflects the price hike.

If it breaks

If the closing price falls back below 6,400 rials (the base this rally started from, around Mehr 7), the bullish view is invalidated and the recent net individual selling becomes a genuine warning sign rather than noise.

What to watch

The daily individual/institutional flow breakdown over the coming sessions, Vitana's monthly Codal activity report, any fresh food-pricing approval, and the path of the free-market dollar.

Every call on this symbol

30 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 7 October 10:57BullishVITZ (Vitana) filled its buy queue to today's price-band ceiling of 7,590 rials, but individual investors have net sold for a second straight session7,590 rialsunchanged0.0%
  2. 6 October 13:29BullishVITZ hit a fresh 52-week high of 7,370 rials on a sixth straight up session; the buy queue is full but individuals are still net sellers7,370 rialsup3.0%
  3. 5 October 10:57BullishGhavita rose for a third consecutive session and hit a fresh ceiling of 7,180 rial with a buy queue; real-money flow is not yet aligned7,180 rialsup2.6%
  4. 4 October 10:54BullishGovita stayed at the Iran Fara Bourse buy-queue ceiling for a second consecutive day and aligned with the 30 percent product price-increase permit6,980 rialsup2.9%
  5. 3 October 10:57BullishGovita broke above the 6,760 rial resistance and reached the ceiling of the price band; buy queue not yet confirmed by real volume6,780 rialsup2.9%
  6. 30 September 10:50BullishGhovita hit the ceiling of the fluctuation band for a third consecutive session; traded volume has fallen each session and the queue is still not confirmed by real volume6,590 rialsup2.9%
  7. 29 September 10:50BullishGovita hit the ceiling of its price band in midday trading; a buy queue of close to 80 million shares formed on weak executed volume6,400 rialsup3.0%
  8. 29 September 08:38BullishGhavita broke above resistance at 6,140 rial; a buy queue of 372 formed at the band ceiling on Iran Fara Bourse6,220 rialsup2.9%
  9. 26 September 10:50NeutralGavita on Iran Fara Bourse lost the 5,970 rial floor; now only 5,830 rial stands between a neutral view and a deeper correction5,940 rialsup4.7%
  10. 23 September 11:04NeutralThe range ceiling was touched but the closing price rose only 0.67 percent6,140 rialsdown3.3%
  11. 22 September 11:04NeutralVitana's profit rose 531 percent while sales rose only 74 percent — meaning this stock's story is about margin, not sales volume5,930 rialsup3.5%
  12. 21 September 11:03NeutralVitana's 37 percent discount to the group is the price of sales volume that hasn't grown, not a reward for the patient shareholder6,050 rialsdown2.0%