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Sahmino callsCoin

Half CoinHALFNeutral

The half-coin bubble went from 3.4 to 5.8 percent in one day and broke the 1,240 million rial ceiling

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until 18 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

1,260,000,000 rials

That dayup2.9%

Support

1,240,000,000 rials

Invalidation

1,220,000,000 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup12.6%

Conclusion

I'm declaring the previous range lost and staying neutral: I give about 55 percent probability that the closing price will not fall below 1,220 million rial by 18 Mehr, because the free-market dollar keeps intrinsic value elevated. Risk: about 68 million rial of today's price is bubble, and an auction announcement or a dollar reversal could drain it quickly.

The evidence

  • Half-coin, 6 Mehr 1405, 13:38: 1,260 million rial, 2.86 percent higher than yesterday; it broke the 1,240 million rial ceiling from the 4 Mehr note's range and invalidated that range forecast.
  • Intrinsic value (4.0665 grams of 900 gold) with the ounce at $4,153 and the free-market dollar at 2,438,200 rial (both at 13:19): about 1,191.5 million rial, only 0.6 percent higher than 5 Mehr.
  • The bubble went from about 3.4 percent on 5 Mehr (ounce at $4,285 on 4 Mehr, free-market dollar at 2,350,000 rial) to about 5.8 percent; most of today's rise was bubble.
  • Alongside other coins: today's quarter-coin bubble is about 11.6 percent, double the half-coin. Today's full-coin figure in our data has a recording error, so we set aside comparison with it.

If it holds

If the price holds above 1,240 million rial, the base scenario is consolidation at the new step and gradual closing of the bubble via intrinsic value rising.

If it breaks

If the closing price settles below 1,220 million rial (the 4 Mehr close), this view is invalidated and today's bubble has been drained.

What to watch

What to watch: the half-coin bubble percentage alongside the quarter-coin, the next auction announcement from the exchange center and the commodity exchange, and the free-market dollar.

Every call on this symbol

13 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 28 September 13:44NeutralThe half-coin bubble went from 3.4 to 5.8 percent in one day and broke the 1,240 million rial ceiling1,260,000,000 rialsup12.6%
  2. 26 September 08:32NeutralThe 30 million rial growth of the half-coin from 31 Shahrivar to 2 Mehr was all bubble, and intrinsic value did not budge1,230,000,000 rialsup2.4%
  3. 22 September 08:43NeutralHalf-coin bubble 18.36 million rial against 63.09 million rial for the Bahar coin; ratio from two days ago reversed1,200,000,000 rialsup2.5%
  4. 20 September 11:17NeutralThe half-coin's bubble widened today while the Bahar coin's bubble narrowed, moving in exactly opposite directions, and the gap between them reached sevenfold1,230,000,000 rialsdown2.4%
  5. 15 September 08:44NeutralTwo half coins today come out 40,150,000 rial more expensive than one full coin, for exactly the same weight of gold1,190,000,000 rialsup3.4%
  6. 13 September 11:40NeutralThe half-coin bubble is 5.05 percent and the full coin is 2.87 percent; the gap between these two is today's news1,210,000,000 rialsdown1.7%
  7. 8 September 13:25NeutralOur 1,160-million support was touched exactly and held, but our own morning thesis was half-invalidated this very day1,190,000,000 rialsup1.7%
  8. 8 September 11:40NeutralThe bubble inversion we reported yesterday reversed: half coin 0.25 and full coin 0.21 percent, both near zero1,160,000,000 rialsup2.6%
  9. 5 September 08:47BullishThe half-coin this time definitively broke above the 114 million toman resistance; record 120 million, bubble still larger than the full coin1,200,000,000 rialsdown3.3%
  10. 1 September 08:47NeutralHalf-coin reached the 114 million toman resistance but hasn't closed above it yet; growth is still more from the dollar than the ounce1,140,000,000 rialsup5.3%
  11. 29 August 13:25NeutralHalf coin rose 2.29 percent and took back the 109 million toman support; this time its bubble is bigger than the full coin1,115,000,000 rialsup2.2%
  12. 25 August 18:09NeutralHalf coin dropped 4.6 percent and lost the 109.4 million toman support; its bubble versus the full coin did not change1,090,000,000 rialsup2.3%