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Sahmino callsCoin

Rob SekkehQUARTERBullish

Quarter coin hit a record 710 million rial as the dollar crossed the 250,000-toman channel; bubble 12.7 percent

Horizon: Short-term (1 to 2 weeks, until 22 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

710,000,000 rials

That dayunchanged0.0%

Support

680,000,000 rials

Invalidation

650,000,000 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup7.5%

Conclusion

I'm turning bullish: I put about 60 percent probability that the quarter coin's closing price stays above 650 million rial through 22 Mehr, because the free dollar has broken the 250,000-toman channel and the global ounce has stayed high. The main risk is the 12.7 percent bubble: easing of Strait of Hormuz and nuclear tensions, or fresh supply of parallel coin futures on the commodity exchange, could deflate it before it reaches intrinsic value sooner.

The evidence

  • The quarter coin's closing price on Tuesday, 7 Mehr 1405 (September 29), rose 6.77 percent versus the previous card to reach 710 million rial, hitting a 52-week record (distance to the 52-week high: zero percent).
  • Tehran's free dollar crossed the 250,000-toman channel for the first time, reaching 2,537,000 rial at 19:59 on Tuesday, 7 Mehr; Donya-e-Eqtesad attributed the cause to disappointment over Strait of Hormuz talks and the nuclear file.
  • The quarter coin's bubble (the gap to the intrinsic value of the gold inside it) reached 89,990,000 rial on the evening of 7 Mehr, about 12.7 percent of the price; the Emami coin's bubble was only 3.3 percent at the same time, exactly matching the pattern of the largest bubble for the smallest unit.
  • The quarter coin's 20-day moving average is 644.5 million rial and the 50-day average is 599.2 million rial; the current price clearly stands above both.
  • The global gold ounce stood at 4,178.81 dollars this morning, Wednesday 8 Mehr, 0.11 percent higher than the previous day and in the upper range of recent weeks.

If it holds

If the 680 million rial level (near support) holds, continuation of the uptrend toward new records above 710 million rial is likely.

If it breaks

If the closing price settles below 650 million rial, it means this move was built on bubble rather than intrinsic value, and the bullish view is invalidated; a return to the 20-day average (644.5 million rial) and lower would become likely.

What to watch

The trend of the free dollar after the 250,000-toman channel, the global gold ounce, and any fresh announcement of coin supply or parallel coin futures bonds on the commodity exchange directly aimed at deflating this very bubble.

Every call on this symbol

10 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 30 September 08:41BullishQuarter coin hit a record 710 million rial as the dollar crossed the 250,000-toman channel; bubble 12.7 percent710,000,000 rialsup7.5%
  2. 28 September 13:23Neutral11.6 percent bubble: the quarter coin hit 665 million rial on the day the ounce fell, invalidating our bearish view665,000,000 rialsup6.8%
  3. 26 September 08:33BearishQuarter coin touched 650 million rial against our bearish view, and its bubble passed the 10 percent mark650,000,000 rialsup2.3%
  4. 20 September 11:20BearishThe full-coin bubble went to nearly zero in one week, but the quarter-coin bubble stayed put — and it's the only one now left alone655,000,000 rialsdown0.8%
  5. 13 September 11:43NeutralToday's bubble ladder: full coin 2.87, half coin 5.05, quarter coin 10.26 percent635,000,000 rialsup3.1%
  6. 9 September 11:17NeutralOur 645 million rial invalidation was rejected and the bearish thesis is void; the bubble widened from 7.2 to 11.5 percent instead of draining660,000,000 rialsdown3.8%
  7. 2 September 13:43BullishThe quarter coin hit exactly the 63 million toman invalidation level and set a fresh record; today's gain is again larger than gold's and the dollar's630,000,000 rialsup4.8%
  8. 31 August 13:48NeutralThe quarter-coin bubble rose from 8 to 10.1 percent over 4 sessions; contrary to the bearish view of the previous card, the price has gone up, not down610,000,000 rialsup3.3%
  9. 25 August 18:14BearishFull coin and half-coin moved close to intrinsic value, but the quarter-coin bubble still stands at around 8 percent590,000,000 rialsup3.4%
  10. 24 August 13:28BullishThe quarter coin today rose 2.46 percent to 62.5 million toman; its premium is about 5.7 percent, the most premium-heavy unit among coins625,000,000 rialsdown5.6%