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Sahmino callsCoin

Emami CoinEMAMINeutral

This time the bubble rose along with the Emami coin, reaching one step from our 2 percent line

Horizon: Short-term (10 calendar days, through 14 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

2,400,100,000 rials

That dayunchanged0.0%

Support

2,349,800,000 rials

Resistance

2,440,100,000 rials

Invalidation

2,339,800,000 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup11.4%

Conclusion

I remain neutral but am widening the band: I give about 60 percent probability that by 14 Mehr the closing price will stay between 2,339,800,000 and 2,440,100,000 rial. The "bubble under 2 percent" forecast is on the edge, and I am lowering my confidence in it to about 50 percent. Risk: a jump in the free-market dollar, or an auction announcement that drains the bubble overnight.

The evidence

  • The Emami coin closed on 2 Mehr 1405 at 2,400,100,000 rial, 2.58 percent above the 31 Shahrivar card price; it stayed far from the 2,300,050,000 rial redemption level, and resistance at 2,420,100,000 rial has still not broken.
  • Intrinsic value on 2 Mehr was 2,354,465,000 rial and the bubble was 45.64 million rial, about 1.94 percent; the 31 Shahrivar card had read the bubble at 1.1 percent. The bubble is now right under our 2 percent line.
  • The gold component also rose but less: 18-karat gold went from 239,390,000 rial (31 Shahrivar) to 241,246,000 rial (2 Mehr), about 0.8 percent, with the free-market dollar trending up and the ounce trending down.
  • Bubble tiering on 2 Mehr: Bahar coin about 0.1 percent, Emami coin about 1.9, half coin about 4.2, and quarter coin about 10.1 percent. Retail excitement is concentrated in the smaller coins.
  • The price is 0.83 percent below the 52-week closing price ceiling of 2,420,100,000 rial (18 Shahrivar) and above the 20-day average of 2,356,457,500 rial.

If it holds

If the closing price stays above 2,339,800,000 rial (30 Shahrivar floor) and does not exceed 2,440,100,000 rial, the base scenario is fluctuation within the band with a bubble around 2 percent.

If it breaks

If the closing price is recorded below 2,339,800,000 rial, this view is invalidated, meaning the bubble and gold component have retreated together; crossing above 2,440,100,000 rial (19 Shahrivar intraday ceiling) also sets the band aside.

What to watch

What to watch: the bubble percentage relative to 2 percent, the free-market dollar, the ounce relative to the 2 Mehr floor (4,245 dollars), and Exchange Center auction announcements.

Every call on this symbol

19 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 26 September 08:43NeutralThis time the bubble rose along with the Emami coin, reaching one step from our 2 percent line2,400,100,000 rialsup11.4%
  2. 22 September 08:55NeutralThe premium held steady at 1.1 percent while the coin fell 2.10 percent; meaning the entire drop settled on the gold component2,339,800,000 rialsup2.6%
  3. 20 September 14:15NeutralThe bearish call is finished because the voided quote was touched; but the coin's bubble shrank from 3.4 to 1.08 percent, and this very distinction is the whole story2,400,050,000 rialsdown2.5%
  4. 15 September 11:18BearishThe coin premium shrank from 3 to 2.27 percent, while rial gold was positive today2,325,050,000 rialsup3.2%
  5. 15 September 08:38NeutralAfter five sessions of decline, the coin held at support, with its distance to the invalidation level narrowing to less than one daily swing2,339,850,000 rialsdown0.6%
  6. 13 September 11:37NeutralThe risk we had written about became reality: metal fell 1.3 percent and the bubble absorbed only 0.3 points of it2,369,800,000 rialsdown1.3%
  7. 9 September 11:13BullishThe 2.2 percent bubble is still thin; metal made the coin's fresh high and the excitement share was only 0.3 points2,400,050,000 rialsdown1.3%
  8. 8 September 13:27NeutralThe coin rose 1.74 percent while the ounce did not move; rial made this rally and thinned the bubble2,339,900,000 rialsup2.6%
  9. 7 September 09:05BullishThe emami coin bubble shrank from 2.8 to 2.66 percent, and our support was broken by only 200,000 rial, which is not a breakdown2,339,900,000 rialsunchanged0.0%
  10. 6 September 11:31Bullish65 million rial of the Emami gold coin's price is not gold: breaking down today's record of 2,384,800,000 rial2,384,850,000 rialsdown1.9%
  11. 5 September 08:44BullishEmami coin bubble shrank today, didn't grow; record 2,340,100,000 rial (234 million toman) almost entirely from gold and the dollar2,340,100,000 rialsup1.9%
  12. 2 September 13:41BullishEmami coin hit a fresh record and surpassed even the morning's 225 million toman ceiling; today's growth is slightly more than gold and the dollar2,260,100,000 rialsup3.5%