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Sahmino callsFarabourse

وبرقSEIPBearish

Vobargh: Published support of 59,040 broken on a closing basis; less than half a percent from invalidation at 58,340

Horizon: Short-term (4 to 5 trading sessions, until 20 Mehr 1405)

Price when published

59,190 rials

That dayup1.1%

Support

58,340 rials

Resistance

64,800 rials

Invalidation

59,040 rials

The levels on the chart

Since writtenup1.8%

Conclusion

With the closing break of support at 59,040 and a gap of less than half a percent to invalidation at 58,340, and without the three-way confirmation of real-money inflow, there is roughly a 60 percent chance that future closes remain below 59,040 and that pressure toward 58,340 continues; the thin liquidity of the base market could intensify this move in either direction or lead to a trading halt of the symbol.

The evidence

  • Tuesday's close of 13 Mehr 1405 settled at 58,520 rial, below the published support of 59,040 (close of 14 Shahrivar); the gap to invalidation at 58,340 (close of 11 Shahrivar) is now only about 0.3 percent.
  • The distance to the 52-week high (71,910 rial, 25 Shahrivar) is 18.6 percent, and the price remains below the 20-day average (64,534 rial); Vobargh is on IFB's base market with thin liquidity and a real risk of a trading halt of the symbol.
  • Tuesday's volume was 3,626,463 shares, about 1.44 times the monthly average (2,509,118 shares); net retail flow was approximately zero (−10,000 shares) and the buyer power ratio was 1.03, meaning all three confirming conditions for real-money inflow were not simultaneously met.
  • Vobargh's main anchor is its portfolio (Bank Saderat, Bank Gardeshgari, Esfahan Steel and others) and the overall market; but while the TSE overall index rose 7.1 percent and the IFB index rose 5.4 percent (5 to 13 Mehr), Vobargh fell about 5 percent.
  • The policy dial has not changed: as of 5 Mordad the government owed about 350,000 billion toman to the electricity industry (EghtesadOnline), and the Minister of Energy said on Monday 13 Mehr that a general tariff increase is not on the agenda (MHRI); the main effect passes through the non-electricity portfolio.

If it holds

If the close remains below the new ceiling of 59,040 (the previously broken support), the bearish base scenario continues and the price moves toward 58,340 and lower.

If it breaks

If the close moves back above 59,040, the bearish view is invalidated and the possibility of a return toward 64,800 reopens.

What to watch

Volume and net retail flow in upcoming sessions; until buyer power above 1, volume at least double the monthly average, and positive net retail flow are seen simultaneously, any rebound is unreliable.

Every call on this symbol

33 calls; the move to the next call from the prices when written

  1. 6 October 08:47BearishVobargh: Published support of 59,040 broken on a closing basis; less than half a percent from invalidation at 58,34059,190 rialsup1.8%
  2. 5 October 11:09NeutralVabargh in the base market approached within 20 rial of the cancellation level of 58,340 intraday; today's retail flow is exactly zero58,600 rialsup1.0%
  3. 4 October 11:07NeutralVabarq touched intraday support of 60,140 rial in the base market; volume is far below usual60,120 rialsdown2.5%
  4. 28 September 08:35NeutralHigh-volume rebound for Vobarq from the band's floor to its ceiling in a single session; we close the bearish view and go neutral62,800 rialsdown4.3%
  5. 26 September 10:51BearishFifth straight session of decline for Vobargh on the yellow base; the 60,140 rial target is close and we bring the invalidation level to 64,80060,980 rialsup3.0%
  6. 23 September 11:15BearishFloor of the range, sell queue, and a 900-share buyer62,860 rialsdown3.0%
  7. 22 September 11:13BearishVabargh's board price is 64,800 rial, but the best buyer sits at 58,350, 10 percent below the figure the chart shows64,800 rialsdown3.0%
  8. 21 September 11:14BearishOur downside target was filled, but what matters more is what today's order book says about the possibility of an exit66,770 rialsdown3.0%
  9. 19 September 09:30Bearish757 thousand shares sit at the floor of the seller's range, and the nearest buyer is 8 percent lower; that's base market for you69,760 rialsdown4.3%
  10. 16 September 09:38NeutralVabargh is up 66.6 percent since 20 Mordad, and the overall index 31.1 percent; the share has outrun its own portfolio72,100 rialsdown3.2%
  11. 15 September 09:47Neutral99.7 percent of the past twenty sessions' turnover in Vobargh has been retail; the price that has doubled was not made by someone pricing the portfolio70,000 rialsup3.0%
  12. 14 September 10:05NeutralPrice-to-book ratio went from 2.86 to 2.94 and the six-week gain reached 96.4 percent68,060 rialsup2.9%