Bitcoin Stalls Near $64,500; Friday's US Jobs Report Set to Decide the Next Move

Bitcoin traded near $64,469 on the evening of Thursday, August 6, 2026 (15 Mordad 1405), after two days of failed attempts to clear the $65,000 level. Attention has now turned to Friday's monthly US jobs report, an event that could reshuffle the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September meeting and determine which way Bitcoin breaks out of its multi-week grinding range. This analysis is not a buy or sell recommendation.

Background

Bitcoin opened this week with a dip toward about $62,500 on Monday, August 3 (12 Mordad), but buyers stepped in the same day, according to FxPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich (via CoinDesk, August 6), pushing the price back above its 50-day moving average. As a result, Bitcoin is up roughly 0.5% over the past seven days, though it moved little in the last 24 hours. The same analyst noted that optimism is centered on Bitcoin itself rather than the broader crypto market, a pattern typically seen in the early stages of a longer-term move. For the basics of how Tether works as a dollar substitute, see Sahmino's Crypto From Scratch explainer.

At the same time, the domestic Tether rate, which functions as a digital dollar and inflation hedge for many Iranians, traded this evening between about 187,230 and 187,607 tomans, well below the record above 193,000 tomans seen during the peak of military tension in southern Iran last month, though still elevated relative to levels before it fell 1.72% after a planned strike was cancelled earlier this month. Part of that relative calm may trace to diplomatic developments reported today: per Ecoiran (August 6), citing Reuters, a proposed agreement between Tehran and Muscat aimed at ending five months of Iran-US conflict has surfaced, a claim that lines up with CoinDesk's reference to "Iran said it had reached an agreement with Oman on a shipping route through the Strait of Hormuz" and a simultaneous drop in Brent crude below $80. Sahmino does not yet treat this as a finalized deal, but the speculation itself may be one reason Tether has stayed off its recent highs.

Market Snapshot

Drivers

The jobs report affects Bitcoin mainly through Federal Reserve rate expectations. Per Arzdigital (August 6), the best-case scenario for Bitcoin is a "balanced" report: job growth near forecasts (about 80,000), slower wage growth, a steady unemployment rate, and no significant upward revisions to prior months. That combination would lower the odds of a rate hike without stoking recession fears.

Conversely, stronger-than-expected job and wage growth could push September hike odds back up and pressure Bitcoin, while a very weak report is not necessarily bullish either, since renewed concern about a slowing US economy could offset the initial boost from falling bond yields. According to Glassnode data cited by Arzdigital, the $62,000 to $68,000 band holds the heaviest supply concentration, which is the main reason price has been stuck there for weeks. A sustained break above $69,000, which coincides with short-term holders' break-even cost basis, could open the path to the lower-supply $83,000 to $86,000 zone, though that scenario still requires renewed inflows into spot ETFs.

On Iran's side, the domestic Tether rate these days reflects regional geopolitical risk and its gap with the official dollar rate more than global Bitcoin swings. But both markets share one feature: each is waiting on an external trigger, one the US jobs report, the other diplomatic movement on the Strait of Hormuz.

Outlook

This section is a monitoring framework only, not a firm forecast or investment advice. In the bullish scenario, a balanced or weaker-than-expected report could further reduce rate-hike odds and push Bitcoin to test $69,000. In the bearish scenario, stronger wage and job growth could push hike odds back up and send price toward the $62,000 support, and toward the $60,000 psychological level if that breaks. For domestic Tether, the fate of Strait of Hormuz deal speculation matters at least as much as the US jobs report.

Bottom Line

Bitcoin has spent this week inside the same grinding $62,000 to $68,000 range of recent weeks, and it will likely take Friday's jobs report, not a crypto-specific headline, to clarify the next move. For an Iranian reader, the notable point is that the same weekly drop in September rate-hike odds (from 80.5% to 57.4%) that has supported Bitcoin shows up in domestic Tether too, as relative stability near 187,000 tomans, a level still well above where it stood before the recent tensions.

What to Watch

• The final July nonfarm payrolls figure against the roughly 80,000 forecast, on release Friday.
• The unemployment rate against the 4.2% forecast, and any revisions to prior months.
• Bitcoin's reaction to the $62,000 support and the $65,000 to $69,000 resistance band in the hours after release.
• September rate-hike odds, which stood at 57.4% ahead of the report.
• The fate of Strait of Hormuz deal speculation and the domestic Tether rate's gap with the free-market dollar.

This list is for monitoring only and is not a buy or sell recommendation.