Background
The free-market US dollar rose roughly 9% in the week to July 1 (10 Tir), climbing from 161,500 toman on June 27 (6 Tir) to 174,380 to 176,000 toman by the evening of July 1. The uptrend continued on July 2: according to Shargh Daily, the morning rate opened at 174,300 toman, up 1,800 toman from the prior day, and approached or crossed the 175,000 toman mark during the day. The rally coincides with a fragile ceasefire between Iran and the US and Israel: a memorandum of understanding signed on June 17, 2026 (27 Khordad 1405) opened a 60-day negotiation framework, and the US Treasury issued a 60-day waiver on Iranian oil sanctions on June 22, 2026 (1 Tir 1405), though the outcome of the talks remains unresolved. Global gold was comparatively volatile over the same period: the spot price fell to an eight-month low of $3,943 to $3,965 an ounce in late June before recovering to about $4,055 on July 2, after the new Federal Reserve chair's comments eased inflation concerns.