Iran Market Pulse: Monday Morning, July 6, 2026

Lead

Monday, July 6 (15 Tir 1405), was the third and final day of a three-day shutdown across the Tehran Stock Exchange, Iran Fara Bourse, the Iran Mercantile Exchange and the Iran Energy Exchange, ordered for the state funeral of Iran's late Supreme Leader. Iran's Securities and Exchange Organization has confirmed trading resumes tomorrow, Tuesday, July 7 (16 Tir). Parallel markets kept moving through the closure: the free-market dollar reached 175,600 tomans Sunday evening, the Emami gold coin's premium jumped more than 24% in a month, and global gold climbed back above $4,170 an ounce after retreating to a seven-month low.

Snapshot

Today's Headlines

• Iran's Securities and Exchange Organization: capital-market trading resumes Tuesday morning, July 7 (reported by Eghtesad Online, July 1).
• OPEC+ raised August oil output by 188,000 barrels per day, with Saudi Arabia and Russia each adding 62,000 bpd (Sunday, July 5, via CNBC and The National).
• The Emami coin's premium jumped over 24% in a month, topping 7 million tomans (Sunday, July 5, via Rahbord-e Moaser).
• US spot Bitcoin ETFs swung to net inflows on July 3 after a record 10-day, $4.06 billion outflow streak in June (via CoinDesk).
• Iran's Competition Council approved roughly 30% of automakers' requested 67% price increase (via Tejaratnews).

Currency

The free-market dollar traded around 175,600 tomans Sunday evening, July 5 (14 Tir), up about 205 tomans (0.1%) on the day (Shargh Daily, Tejaratnews). The free-market euro was reported in a 198,600 to 200,760 toman range over the same window, reflecting some spread across exchanges. Separately, the official "agreed" (tavafoghi) transfer rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center last stood at 147,664 tomans for sale on Wednesday, July 1, the final business day before the closure, a gap of roughly 28,000 tomans (near 19%) versus the free-market rate, though the two readings are a few days apart. Central Bank Governor Abdolnasser Hemmati said reserves grew by $4.5 billion in recent months to help fund essential imports, and that a new phase of industrial FX allocation, worth $2 billion, began July 6 (Ecoiran).

Gold and Coins

18-karat gold traded around 17,600,000 tomans per gram Sunday evening, with a mesghal (about 4.6 grams) near 76,600,000 tomans. The Emami coin reached 178,000,000 tomans, Bahar Azadi 174,000,000 tomans, the half coin 93,500,000 tomans, and the quarter coin 53,500,000 tomans (Shargh Daily, Ecoiran, Rahbord-e Moaser). Notably, the Emami coin's premium (the gap between its market price and underlying gold value, known in Persian as "hobab") climbed steadily through the month, from about 5.7 million tomans on June 27 (6 Tir) to over 7 million tomans on July 5, a roughly 24% rise pointing to speculative demand running ahead of gold itself; the half coin's premium reached about 6.8 million tomans. Globally, spot gold rebounded above $4,170 an ounce after dropping below $4,000 in late June (its first sub-$4,000 print since November 2025), as Fed rate-hike bets eased and safe-haven demand firmed; the price remains about 28% below this year's late-January peak of $5,598. Goldman Sachs cut its year-end 2026 gold forecast to $4,900 from $5,400 on June 20.

Stocks

The last trading session before the closure, Wednesday, July 1, saw the TEDPIX climb to about 5,187,000 points (+1.16%), with the equal-weight index up a similar margin to roughly 1,361,000, closing the week in the green. That session drew a net real-money inflow of about 1.8 trillion tomans, led by Shepadis, Shasta and Tapico, while Vebmellat, Sharaz and Shatran saw the largest outflows. The electricity-utilities group drew the largest share of real-money inflow (nearly 66%), followed by detergents, electrical machinery, wood, nitrogen-fertilizer petrochemicals and dairy. Attention now turns to tomorrow's reopening: the Securities and Exchange Organization has confirmed trading resumes Tuesday, though Tehran's general public holiday for government offices was separately extended to Tuesday as well to help mourners leave the capital, a factor worth watching for its effect on early trading. Some market commentary, without offering a specific figure or firm prediction, has suggested that if early sell-pressure is managed, the coming week could prove relatively calm.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded around $62,900 early Monday, up roughly 0.3% to 1.6% on the day and near 3.7% over the past week, a modest rebound after touching a 21-month low near $59,000 in late June. Ethereum outperformed, up close to 13% over the past week to trade around $1,775, a move Iranian outlets partly credited to a new Ethereum security and scalability roadmap unveiled by Vitalik Buterin. Tether traded around 175,000 tomans domestically, tracking the free-market dollar closely. Globally, US spot Bitcoin ETFs snapped a 10-day, roughly $4 billion outflow streak (a record for June) with a $221.7 million net inflow on July 3, even as whale wallets accumulated about 270,000 bitcoin (roughly $16.7 billion) near the $59,000 level over the prior two weeks.

Steel

Rebar prices ranged from 57,000 to 72,090 tomans per kilogram over the past week depending on size and mill, up about half a percent. Zob Ahan Esfahan's size-16 beam reached 83,486 tomans (up 2,000) on July 4 (13 Tir), while Zafar Bonab's size-14 beam reached 69,908 tomans. Sheet steel traded between 75,910 and roughly 104,000 to 109,000 tomans per kilogram depending on thickness and mill. The free-market dollar's roughly 5% weekly rise was cited as the main pass-through driver for input costs.

Cars

In the free market, the factory-to-market gap for the Tara Automatic V4 was reported at about 70 million tomans (factory near 2.47 billion tomans, free-market near 2.54 billion, second week of Tir). The manual Peugeot 207 traded around 1.79 billion tomans and the Dena Plus EF7P around 2.09 billion tomans. Market analysis points to a gradual convergence between factory and free-market prices, though a gap persists. On policy, automakers had requested a 67% price increase, of which the Competition Council approved only about 30%; one member of parliament's Industries Commission said a car-price increase was inappropriate under current conditions.

Building Materials

Wholesale Type 2 cement prices on June 30 (9 Tir) stood at about 253,000 tomans for Tehran and Saveh mills, 255,000 for Abyek, and 281,000 for Sofian, with the market described as largely stable. On the Iran Mercantile Exchange, the cement hall led all trading with about 120,000 tons cleared that day. Power and gas rationing for cement plants intensified in July compared to June, which industry sources flagged as a risk to production supply in the months ahead.

Regional and Global Backdrop

Brent crude traded around $72 a barrel and WTI near $68.50, after OPEC+ raised August output by 188,000 barrels a day on Sunday amid a fragile Iran-US truce. The US Dollar Index slipped below 101 following a weak June jobs report (57,000 new jobs versus a roughly 110,000 forecast), cutting the odds of a September Fed rate hike to about 50%; that dollar softness, combined with safe-haven demand, underpinned gold's weekly gain. Regionally, the Turkish lira held near 46.8 per dollar as Turkey's annual inflation eased to 32.1% in June, its lowest since March. The Iraqi dinar traded near 1,311 per dollar in the market; Iraq's central bank has replaced its former daily FX auction with a tiered structure since late 2024. China's yuan held around 6.78 per dollar, and international reporting indicates China continues to absorb discounted Iranian crude via an informal tanker network relabeled under third-country origin, a channel that matters for Iran's oil-export receipts.

What to Watch Today

The main event ahead is the capital market's reopening tomorrow morning, Tuesday, July 7, after three days closed; early buy and sell queues will be worth watching. The Central Bank's weekly gold-coin auction at the Exchange Center continues on schedule. On the global calendar, June US consumer inflation data is due July 14, and the Fed's next meeting is set for July 28 to 29. New US federal rules for stablecoin issuers are due to take effect July 18.

Disclaimer

This report is for educational market information only and is not investment advice. All figures are dated and subject to change; verify them against official, up-to-date sources before making any financial decision.