Iran Market Pulse: The Week That Was and the Week Ahead (June 27 to July 1, 2026)

Iran's free-market dollar jumped about 9% in the week ending Wednesday, July 1, 2026 (10 Tir 1405), rising from roughly 161,500 tomans at the start of the week (Saturday, June 27 / 6 Tir) to about 176,000 tomans by week's end, the biggest single story across Iran's markets this week, one that rippled into gold, coins, cars and steel. At the same time, Tehran's TEDPIX index fell 1.95% on Sunday, June 28 (7 Tir) amid reports of tension near the Strait of Hormuz and a rumor of a bank deposit-rate hike, before late-week gains largely offset the drop, leaving the index up just 0.21% net for the week. Below is a full review of all eight markets for the week of 6 to 10 Tir 1405 (June 27 to July 1, 2026), plus a look at next week's calendar, with every figure dated and sourced.

1. The Week at a Glance

2. This Week's Top Headlines

• The free-market dollar jumped about 9% in a week, from 161,500 tomans (6 Tir) to roughly 176,000 tomans (10 Tir) (per Fararu and Tejarat News, based on tgju.org data).
• The Central Bank of Iran called a rumor of a 40% bank deposit-rate hike unfounded, saying the benchmark one-year deposit rate remains around 23% (7 to 8 Tir 1405 / June 28 to 29, per Fararu and Eghtesad Online).
• TEDPIX fell 100,762 points (1.95%) to 5,075,593 on Sunday, 7 Tir (June 28), amid reports of tension near the Strait of Hormuz and the rate-hike rumor; gains on Tuesday and Wednesday largely offset the drop by week's end (per Tejarat News and Ta'adol newspaper).
• The Ring Sport Noor Neyriz IPO (symbol Raniz) priced on Iran Fara Bourse on Sunday, 7 Tir 1405 (June 28), via a combined method at a reference price of 11,537 rials per share (per Charisma Learning and Sedaye Bourse).
• Iran's parliament speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, said that since the naval blockade was lifted following the Iran-US memorandum of understanding (27 Khordad 1405 / June 17, 2026), more than 40 million barrels of Iranian crude have been exported at prices roughly 20% above pre-tension levels (10 Tir 1405 / July 1, per CNBC).

3. Currency

The US dollar in Tehran's free market ended the week up nearly 9%: the rate climbed from about 161,500 tomans at the week's open (Saturday, 6 Tir) to 171,800 to 173,000 tomans mid-week, and finally to 174,380 to 176,000 tomans by Wednesday evening, 10 Tir (source: tgju.org, via Fararu and Ta'adol newspaper). The euro followed a similar path, rising from 189,850 tomans to roughly 196,910 to 197,630 tomans. Meanwhile, the official "agreed" (tavafoghi) dollar rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center held relatively steady for 9 to 10 Tir at 147,305 tomans (sell) and 145,979 tomans (buy); the agreed euro rate was quoted at 168,271 tomans (sell). The gap between the free-market and official rates widened to about 28,000 to 29,000 tomans (nearly 18 to 20%) by week's end, a gap a CBI currency adviser said should stay under 10% but in practice runs wider. The same official said, however, that the central bank's FX reserves have risen by about $4.5 billion since the end of the military tension period, and daily FX demand at the exchange center has fallen from about $600 million a day to under $200 million a day (7 to 8 Tir 1405 / June 28 to 29, per Fararu). The CBI also rejected any return to a fixed, dictated exchange rate and reiterated its goal of unifying the exchange rate to reduce rent-seeking.

4. Gold and Coins

Eighteen-karat gold tracked the dollar's jump, rising from 16,383,000 tomans per gram at the week's open to 17,176,000 to 17,233,100 tomans by week's end (10 Tir), a gain of nearly 5% (source: tgju.org, via EcoIran and Fararu). Gold per mesghal was quoted at 74,650,000 tomans. The Emami coin rose from 166,010,000 tomans to 173,990,000 to 175,490,000 tomans, the half coin to 90,370,000 to 90,980,000 tomans, and the quarter coin to 52,850,000 to 53,270,000 tomans. Notably, the Emami coin's premium (the gap between its market price and intrinsic gold value) widened sharply, from about 5,484,000 tomans at the week's open to 7,863,000 tomans by week's end, a jump of nearly 44%, suggesting coin prices rose faster than their underlying gold-plus-dollar value. Globally, spot gold fell to an eight-month low of $3,943 to $3,965 an ounce mid-week (around July 1) before rebounding to about $4,055 by July 2 on remarks from the Federal Reserve's new chair suggesting inflation concerns had eased; overall, gold ended the week roughly flat (down about half a percent) and remains about 29% below its record high of $5,595, set in Bahman 1404 (January 2026).

5. Stocks

Tehran's TEDPIX had a volatile week: from 5,176,363 points at Saturday's open (6 Tir), it fell 100,762 points (1.95%) to 5,075,593 on Sunday, 7 Tir, and slipped further, 0.34%, to 5,058,126 on Monday; reports of tension near the Strait of Hormuz and the bank rate-hike rumor were cited as drivers (per Tejarat News and Ta'adol newspaper). But gains on Tuesday, 9 Tir (about 1.35%, to 5,127,628) and Wednesday, 10 Tir (59,627 points, 1.17%) brought the index to 5,187,000 by week's end, a net gain of just 10,637 points (0.21%) versus the week's open. The equal-weight index outperformed, rising from 1,337,534 to 1,361,000 points (up 1.75%), signaling some renewed demand for small and mid-cap names. Over the week's first three sessions (6 to 8 Tir), real (retail) investors were net sellers of about 14,100 billion tomans; SHSTA (Social Security Investment Co.), Shabandar (Bandar Abbas Oil Refining), FMELLI (National Iranian Copper Industries), Nouri, and Tapico were among the biggest positive contributors in the week's closing sessions. On Codal, an extraordinary general meeting for FMELLI, originally scheduled for Saturday, 13 Tir, to approve a capital increase, was reported postponed, with no new date yet announced. On Iran Fara Bourse, the Raniz (Ring Sport Noor Neyriz) IPO priced on Sunday, 7 Tir, at a reference price of 11,537 rials per share.

6. Crypto

Bitcoin had a volatile week: from about $61,000 at the week's open, it sank to a 21-month low of roughly $57,950 to $58,600 heading into July, driven largely by a record month of outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs in June (about $4.3 to $4.5 billion, their worst month ever). But remarks from new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh suggesting inflation concerns had eased sent Bitcoin as high as $60,700, and it traded around $60,000 by week's end, a net weekly change near zero after a full round trip down and back (source: CoinDesk and BeInCrypto). Ethereum followed a similar pattern, moving from about $1,565 to a range of $1,570 to $1,620. In Iran's domestic market, the Tether-toman rate rose from about 166,000 to 168,000 tomans to 171,000 to 174,000 tomans (based on tgju.org and Nobitex), a move that directly mirrors the free-market dollar's jump. Separately, the statutory deadline for finalizing US stablecoin rules under the GENIUS Act falls on 27 Tir (July 18), a date crypto-market observers are watching closely for its implications for Tether's standing in the US market.

7. Steel and Iron

Rebar across various sizes and mills traded between 57,000 and 72,090 tomans per kilogram during the week (Sunday, 7 Tir, up about 0.5% on the day; source: Ahan Online and Ta'adol newspaper). Size-14 I-beam from Isfahan's Zob Ahan mill traded at about 12,454,550 tomans per bar on Monday, 8 Tir, and black steel sheet traded in a range of 75,910 to 104,550 tomans per kilogram, depending on thickness and mill. Market participants cited the dollar's nearly 9% weekly jump as the main driver behind these moves; in the absence of a clear signal from the currency market, many steel-market participants took a cautious, "quiet" approach to pricing. On the Iran Mercantile Exchange, 4,035 tons of rebar traded in the industrial and mining hall on Saturday, 6 Tir alone; weekly offerings of long products are typically held on Wednesdays.

8. Cars

The car market showed a two-track pattern this week. Among Iran Khodro products, the automatic Dena Plus reached about 2,655 million tomans by 9 Tir, and the manual Tara V1 Plus reached about 1,920 million tomans by 10 Tir (down 20 million tomans from the day before); the gap between factory and market prices for most Iran Khodro models, including the Soren Plus (about 1.3%) and the Peugeot 207 (about 6.5%), has narrowed sharply in recent months. That trend does not hold for Saipa's products, however: the Quick, with a factory price of 733 to 779 million tomans, traded on the open market at about 1,180 to 1,220 million tomans, a market margin still in the 55 to 65% range. Overall, car-market prices are reported to be about 17% below their Ordibehesht (May) peak, reflecting a notable drop in demand. On the policy side, Iran's Consumers' and Producers' Protection Organization said a reform of the car-pricing methodology is under review by an automotive committee, which, if finalized, would still need approval from the Competition Council.

9. Building Materials

The bagged-cement market stayed roughly flat over the week; Tehran and Saveh cement each traded around 253,000 tomans, Abyek around 255,000 tomans, and Sufian around 281,000 tomans per 50-kilogram bag (source: Ta'adol newspaper). On the commodity exchange, the cement hall was the busiest physical hall in the week ending 5 Tir, with 884,523 tons traded (worth close to 2.9 trillion tomans); at the Kish export hall, 191,000 tons of cement were offered as part of a combined 279,921-ton offering on Monday, 8 Tir. Cement plants, following their usual summer pattern, face restricted power and gas allocations as utilities prioritize residential demand; according to Donya-e-Eqtesad and Nabz-e-Bourse, some plants' power quotas have been cut sharply for Tir and Mordad compared with Ordibehesht, raising production risk for the sector in the months ahead.

10. Global Backdrop

Brent crude ended the week around $73.5 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell below $68 on Thursday, July 2, its lowest level since late February 2026. The main driver has been the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the Iran-US memorandum of understanding (signed 27 Khordad 1405 / June 17, 2026) and a sharp rise in Iranian and Russian oil exports; Brent is now down nearly 23% for the quarter from its winter peak. The US Dollar Index (DXY), after touching a 13-month high of 101.37 on 4 Tir (June 25), eased slightly by week's end to about 101.1; that earlier dollar strength followed a relatively hawkish Federal Reserve decision at its 27 Khordad (June 17) meeting, where the median year-end 2026 rate projection rose to 3.8% (from 3.4% in the March projection). In US equities, the S&P 500 rose 1.3% for the week to 7,449 points, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% to 52,305 points; the first half of 2026 was the best for these indexes since 2020. In Asia, Japan's Nikkei fell sharply, 4.2% in a single day (June 26) on a tech-stock selloff, and ended the week down about 2.6%. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde, speaking at the Sintra forum in Portugal (June 30), said the recent drop in oil prices had left euro-area inflation and growth risks "more balanced." Per CNBC, Iran's parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that since the naval blockade was lifted, more than 40 million barrels of Iranian oil have been exported at prices roughly 20% above tension-era levels.

11. The Week Ahead

• The Tehran Stock Exchange will be closed from Thursday, 11 Tir (the regular weekend) through Monday, 15 Tir; the three sessions from Saturday to Monday (13 to 15 Tir / July 4 to 6) are removed from the trading calendar for an official holiday, with trading resuming Tuesday, 16 Tir 1405 (July 7).
• OPEC+'s group of voluntary producers holds its monthly meeting on oil output levels on Sunday, 14 Tir (July 5).
• Global markets react to the US June jobs report, released Thursday, 11 Tir (July 2).
• A new date for FMELLI's postponed extraordinary general meeting on its capital increase is expected.
• Weekly offerings of rebar, I-beam, and cement deposit certificates on the commodity exchange resume once the market reopens.

The items above are presented solely as things to watch in the week ahead and are not, in any way, a recommendation to buy, sell, or take any other trading action.

12. Disclaimer

This report is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. All figures carry a specific as-of date and may have changed since; verify information against official, up-to-date sources before making any decisions.