Iran Market Pulse: Wednesday Morning, August 5, 2026; Brent Slides to $78.70 in a Third Straight Losing Session

Lead

Brent crude stood at $78.70 a barrel on the morning of Wednesday, 14 Mordad 1405 (5 August 2026), down 0.83 percent from the previous close and in a third consecutive losing session (Trading Economics, 08:05 Tehran time; Iranjib recorded the same benchmark at $78.88 at 08:15). With that move Brent's weekly decline passed 10 percent and the benchmark held below the $80 mark for the first time since 22 Tir (13 July 2026), per Eghtesad Online on 14 Mordad. Our own price data shows the same path: Brent closed at $83.65 on Monday, 12 Mordad (3 August 2026), and at $78.90 on Tuesday, 13 Mordad (4 August 2026). The driver is clear: on Tuesday the US Treasury Secretary said an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be concluded "today or tomorrow", and Iran's foreign ministry spokesman described the talks with Oman as "positive" (Al Jazeera, 13 Mordad).

The same news, though, pushed gold the other way: spot gold climbed above $4,100 an ounce on Wednesday morning, rising for a third straight session, as easing inflation concerns cut the market implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from about 67 percent to about 57 percent (Trading Economics, 14 Mordad). The Tehran Stock Exchange reopens today after a one day Arbaeen holiday, while its last board closed on Monday, 12 Mordad, at very different oil prices.

Today's snapshot

Today's headlines

• Washington said on Tuesday, 13 Mordad, that an interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is close, and Tehran called the political and technical talks with Oman "positive"; the remaining points of difference are the reopening mechanism, maritime service fees and the security arrangements (Al Jazeera, 13 Mordad 1405 / 4 August 2026).
• Markets cut the implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from about 67 percent to about 57 percent, and spot gold rose above $4,100 an ounce in a third consecutive gaining session (Trading Economics, 14 Mordad 1405 / 5 August 2026).
• The S&P 500 rose 1.79 percent and the Dow 1.71 percent on Tuesday, 13 Mordad, both closing at fresh records; CNBC reported the Dow gaining more than 900 points and the S&P 500 closing above 7,700 points for the first time (Trading Economics and CNBC, 13 and 14 Mordad 1405).
• Iran's annual inflation rate fell to 87.9 percent in July 2026 from 88.6 percent in June, the first decline after three consecutive monthly increases, although the level remains very high (Statistical Centre of Iran data as reported by Trading Economics, 14 Mordad 1405 / 5 August 2026).
• Saudi Aramco's second quarter adjusted profit rose 33 percent and its realised price reached $108.10 a barrel, a figure that shows how much of the regional risk premium had settled into Persian Gulf producers' revenue (OilPrice.com, 13 Mordad 1405 / 4 August 2026).
• Over the past week 4,546 buyers from 30 provinces sourced 1,078,033 tonnes of cement through the Iran Mercantile Exchange (Kalakhabar, Iran Mercantile Exchange).

Currency

The cash currency market had not opened at the time of writing, and that matters for how today's numbers should be read. The last recorded daily rate for the free market dollar is Monday, 12 Mordad: 192,880 tomans, up 0.98 percent (Sahmino price data and the TGJU daily rate archive); no daily rate was recorded for Tuesday, 13 Mordad, because of the Arbaeen holiday.

The only currency gauge that has traded continuously through those two days is Tether. On Wednesday morning it ranged between 189,333 tomans (Arzdigital, 08:06), 190,443 tomans (Iranjib, 08:15) and 190,525 tomans (Alanchand, 08:05), roughly 1 to 2 percent below the last daily banknote rate. At the peak of the Hormuz tension Tether usually traded above banknotes; that spread closing is one of the fastest signals that precautionary demand is subsiding. Tether is not a perfect substitute for the banknote rate, though, and the real free market number has to be judged after today's open.

The dollar remittance selling rate at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center, the official "agreed" (tavafoqi) rate, is 153,616 tomans and unchanged (Iranjib, 08:15 Wednesday 14 Mordad; Sahmino price data). Against the last daily free market rate the gap between the two is about 25.6 percent. The direction should be read cautiously: what is happening is the unwinding of the same expectations that were priced in during the weeks of Hormuz tension, not a change in fundamentals. The full table is updated on the dollar price page.

Gold and coin

This is where today's most interesting divergence sits. Spot gold reached $4,134.15 an ounce on Wednesday morning, 14 Mordad, up 1.38 percent from the previous day and in a third consecutive gaining session (Trading Economics, 08:23; Iranjib recorded the same benchmark at $4,135.64 at 08:15). The mechanism is this: news of a near Hormuz deal eases inflation concerns, the market has cut the implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from about 67 percent to about 57 percent, and lower rates make non yielding gold more attractive (Trading Economics, 14 Mordad).

The domestic market moved the opposite way. The mithqal was at 78,990,000 tomans and a gram of 18 karat gold at 18,235,000 tomans on Wednesday morning (Iranjib, 08:15; EcoIran, Tuesday evening; Alanchand had put the mithqal at 78,900,000 tomans). Our last record before the holiday was 79,625,000 tomans for the mithqal and 18,382,400 tomans for the gram on Monday, 12 Mordad, a decline of about 0.8 percent in both. The reason is straightforward: Tehran's gold price is the ounce multiplied by the exchange rate, and the toman side of that equation is retreating faster than the ounce is rising.

In the coin market, the new design full coin was quoted at 182,500,000 tomans, the old design at 179,600,000 tomans, the half coin at 93,500,000 tomans and the quarter coin at 52,100,000 tomans (Iranjib, 08:15 Wednesday; EcoIran had given a range of 182,500,000 to 185,000,000 tomans for the new design coin earlier the same morning). The quarter coin premium (hobab, the excess over intrinsic gold value) was 16.25 percent and the half coin premium 3.92 percent (Alanchand, early Wednesday). On the outlook side, Deutsche Bank analysts estimate fair value for gold at about $4,700 an ounce by the end of 2026; that is one bank's expert estimate, not market data (Eghtesad Online citing CNBC, 14 Mordad).

Stocks

The Tehran Stock Exchange reopens today, Wednesday 14 Mordad, after the Arbaeen holiday. The last trading session, Monday 12 Mordad, was a strong one: the headline index rose 123,295 points, or 2.39 percent, to close at 5,277,353, the equal weight index gained 2.50 percent to 1,497,819, and the Iran Fara Bourse index rose 2.69 percent to 42,758 (Sahmino price data). Trade value that day was about 33 trillion tomans and the trade count was 407,223.

Money flow also favoured individuals: net individual inflow on Monday, 12 Mordad, was 19.2 billion shares, counted across the 1,077 symbols we track (Sahmino price data). The equal weight index outpacing the headline index shows the gain that session was broader across small and mid caps. For today, the open question is how the oil decline and the softer currency side split between two groups: refining and export oriented names come under pressure from both channels, while lower regional risk usually supports risk appetite across the whole market. The live index level is tracked on the TEDPIX page.

Crypto

Bitcoin traded around $64,125 on Wednesday morning, 14 Mordad (Iranjib, 08:15), with Alanchand and Arzdigital recording the same asset at $64,200 (08:05) and $63,963 (04:08); the sources differ by less than half a percent. Ether was near $1,869 and bitcoin's share of the total crypto market was put at 58.7 percent (Arzdigital, 14 Mordad).

The important domestic crypto point today is the one made in the currency section: Tether is effectively pinned in the 189,000 to 190,500 toman band and its spread to the banknote rate has closed. Globally, the Coinbase premium index has stayed negative for 78 consecutive days, a sign of weak US retail demand (Eghtesad Online citing Ramzarz News, 14 Mordad).

Iron and steel

Steel is today's most interesting market precisely because it has not yet priced in anything new. Our latest ex works records, from Tuesday 13 Mordad, are these: 18 mm A3 rebar from Arian Foulad at 70,000 tomans, from Anahita Gilan at 69,820 tomans, from Abhar at 68,640 tomans and from Abarkuh at 65,000 tomans per kilogram; 18 mm Amirkabir rebar at the Tehran trading house was 69,090 tomans (Sahmino price data). In lighter sections, 10 mm A3 rebar from Arian Foulad was recorded at 71,360 tomans and 12 mm from the same mill at 70,090 tomans.

The transmission mechanism is simple to describe. The rial floor under domestic steel is fed from two places: the exchange rate, which sets the cost of imported inputs and the base price of Mercantile Exchange offerings, and the global billet and section price, which sets the export ceiling. When the currency side retreats and global energy falls more than 10 percent in a week, that floor loosens with a lag rather than immediately; the transmission runs through the weekly Mercantile Exchange offerings and the base prices calculated from the exchange rate. The Iran Mercantile Exchange has published its offering circular for the week to 14 Mordad, and on Sunday, 11 Mordad, its trading floors hosted offerings of 3,214,797 tonnes of various products, concentrated in iron ore and cement (Kalakhabar, Iran Mercantile Exchange). Until the results of this week's offerings are known, any read on the direction of rebar prices is premature.

Cars

The car market opened on Wednesday morning, 14 Mordad, with limited price declines in some models and remains in a slump (Eghtesad Online, 14 Mordad). Samand Soren Plus XU7P has fallen 20 million tomans since the start of the week and trades at 1,570,000,000 tomans, Peugeot 207 automatic panorama has dropped 22 million tomans over two days to 2,658,000,000 tomans, and Dena Plus automatic is down 1 million tomans at 2,715,000,000 tomans. Tara automatic V4 was unchanged at 2,577,000,000 tomans. Among Saipa products, Saina S is down 9 million tomans over two days and Quick S is down 6 million tomans since the start of the week, while Atlas G was unchanged at 1,540,000,000 tomans.

The market margin, the gap between the market price and the factory price, remains highly uneven: 185 million tomans or 7.3 percent for Dena Plus automatic, and 474,200,000 tomans or 21.7 percent for Peugeot 207 automatic panorama (calculated from the Eghtesad Online table, 14 Mordad). Today's declines look more like sellers trimming asking prices in response to weak demand than the start of a durable downtrend.

Building materials

Building material prices were little changed in our latest record, Tuesday 13 Mordad: type 2 bulk Portland cement from Tehran Cement at 3,937,000 tomans and from Abyek Cement at 3,593,000 tomans per tonne; in 50 kg bags, Tehran Cement at 291,000 tomans, Abyek at 289,000 tomans and Saveh at 260,000 tomans (Sahmino price data). Demand, though, is heavy: over the past week 4,546 buyers from 30 provinces sourced 1,078,033 tonnes of cement through the Mercantile Exchange (Kalakhabar). The meaningful gap between the Tehran and Abyek bulk prices shows that freight and mill of origin remain the decisive component of the delivered price.

Regional and global view

Brent is at $78.70 and West Texas Intermediate at $75.21, both in a third consecutive losing session with a weekly decline of more than 10 percent (Trading Economics, 08:05 Wednesday 14 Mordad); WTI futures had settled 5.7 percent lower at $75.77 on Tuesday (CNBC). Gold went the other way, rising 1.38 percent above $4,100 an ounce as the market cut the implied odds of a September Federal Reserve rate hike from about 67 percent to about 57 percent (Trading Economics, 14 Mordad). US equities also rose: on Tuesday the S&P 500 gained 1.79 percent, the Dow 1.71 percent and the Nasdaq Composite 2.59 percent, with the first two closing at fresh records (Trading Economics and CNBC, 13 and 14 Mordad); the channel from that news to Tehran runs through global risk appetite and currency expectations. Saudi Aramco's second quarter adjusted profit rose 33 percent with a realised price of $108.10 a barrel and BP's profit reached $5.70 billion (OilPrice.com, 13 Mordad), while US crude inventories rose an unexpected 2,690,000 barrels (American Petroleum Institute data as reported by OilPrice.com, 13 Mordad).

In the neighbourhood, the dollar retreated in the Erbil market while Baghdad exchange houses stayed shut for the Arbaeen holiday (Shafaq News, 13 Mordad); 100 Iraqi dinars were quoted at 12,390 tomans (sell) in Tehran this morning (Alanchand, 08:05). The Turkish lira was at 4,040 tomans and the Chinese yuan at 28,120 tomans (sell), with the dollar to lira parity at 47.55 and dollar to yuan at 6.75 in the latest Tuesday 13 Mordad record (Sahmino price data). The UAE dirham, Iran's most important non cash trade corridor, was quoted at 51,150 tomans. On the Russian side, the country's July crude runs fell to 3.6 million barrels a day, a 24 year low, while India's imports of Russian crude hit a record 2.8 million barrels a day in the same month (OilPrice.com, 14 Mordad); both tighten the competition for the same Asian buyers that are the main destination for regional oil.

Bottom line

Today was a day of divergence, not a day of one market. A single piece of news, the near interim Hormuz deal, pushed oil down for three straight sessions and pulled spot gold up for three straight sessions, because the same headline means more supply for oil and lower odds of a rate hike for gold. Tehran's gold, however, is falling despite the rising ounce, for one reason only: the toman side of the equation is retreating faster than the ounce is climbing. The one thing to remember: from today, reading the domestic gold price without looking at the ounce and the exchange rate at the same time is misleading, because those two are no longer moving in the same direction.

What to watch today

• The Tehran bourse reopening at 09:00 and how refining and metals groups react to Brent below $79, and in particular whether the equal weight index keeps outperforming.
• The first real cash currency market rates after two days without trading, which will show whether the closed Tether to banknote spread holds.
• Any official announcement on the conclusion of the interim deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which officials on both sides called close on Tuesday.
• Registration for Siba Motor's FAW truck and tractor unit cash sale, opening at 11:00 today, in the market events calendar.
• The US ADP private payrolls report at 15:45, the US services purchasing managers index at 17:30 and weekly US crude oil inventories at 18:00 Tehran time; all three bear on the overnight path of oil and gold.
• The gold bar auction at Iran's Currency and Gold Exchange Center, scheduled for 21 Mordad (12 August 2026); details on the event page.
• Brent's live path on the Brent crude price page, to judge whether the three session decline continues or stalls.