Iran Market Pulse: Tuesday Morning, August 4, 2026; Markets Closed for Arbaeen as Brent Returns to the $84 Range

Iran's markets are closed today, Tuesday 13 Mordad 1405 (4 August 2026), for Arbaeen, but the pricing of risk did not take the day off. Brent crude stood at $84.82 at 8:07 a.m. Tehran time today, 1.26 percent above Monday's close (Trading Economics, 13 Mordad), clawing back about a fifth of Monday's slide of more than 5 percent. The driver of the overnight rebound is clear: Tehran denied holding direct talks with Washington, and in the early hours today a cargo vessel was hit by an unidentified projectile about 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman.

The Tehran Stock Exchange, though, went into the holiday on one of the greenest boards of the year. In Monday's 12 Mordad session, 39 of the 40 active industry indices rose, no industry index closed red, and 12 industry indices finished at their highest levels ever (Sena, 12 Mordad). In other words, the equity market has recorded a full pricing of the de-escalation scenario, and until the reopening on Wednesday 14 Mordad it cannot react to fresh news.

Today's snapshot

Today's headlines

• Tehran rejected any direct negotiations with Washington and said its talks with Oman on increasing shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz are continuing; Trump had that same day called the talks Iran's "last chance" (Al Jazeera, 13 Mordad).
• The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre said that in the early hours today a cargo vessel about 20 nautical miles northeast of Khasab, Oman reported being struck by an unidentified projectile; no group claimed responsibility (Anadolu Agency, citing UKMTO, 13 Mordad).
• US Central Command has rerouted 44 commercial vessels and halted two; oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen to 3 to 5 million barrels a day, against roughly 20 million barrels a day before the conflict (Eghtesad Online, 12 Mordad).
• Thirty-nine of the 40 active industry indices rose in Monday's session, the average industry index gain was 2.51 percent, and 12 industry indices set all-time highs (Sena, 12 Mordad).
• Iraq's oil minister said an Iraqi delegation has negotiated with the Iranian side on smooth tanker transit through the Strait of Hormuz (Eghtesad Online, 12 Mordad).
• Tavanir announced that from this week a one-day-a-week power restriction will apply across all of the country's industrial estates (Mehr News Agency, 12 Mordad).

Oil and the regional and global backdrop: a discount only half taken back

Today's story was written in the Brent crude market. On Monday 12 Mordad Brent fell more than 5 percent, retreating to about $83.40 after Trump announced the cancellation of a planned strike and the resumption of talks (Anadolu Agency, 12 Mordad); that day's close was recorded at $83.77. In the early hours today part of that discount was taken back: Brent stood at $84.82 at 8:07, up 1.26 percent (Trading Economics, 13 Mordad), while two other sources showed $84.67 and $84.80 in the same pre-dawn window. West Texas Intermediate rose 0.91 percent to $81.07.

The mechanism is two contradictory accounts. Trump said on Monday evening that talks on fully reopening the Strait of Hormuz would take place "by tomorrow," but Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said that same day that no negotiations with the United States were underway (Eghtesad Online and Al Jazeera, 12 and 13 Mordad). The oil market priced the first account on Monday and took part of it back overnight. Two pieces of ground-level data point the same way: the rerouting of 44 vessels reported by US Central Command, and the report of a projectile striking a cargo ship near Khasab. De-escalation has not yet been implemented on the water. On the supply side, OPEC+ approved another modest quota increase, completing the restoration of the 2023 production cuts (Trading Economics, 13 Mordad).

Elsewhere on the global board, spot gold stood at $4,055.32 at 7:23 today, up a negligible 0.02 percent, and the dollar index was at 100.01 on 4 August, 0.05 percent higher (Trading Economics, 13 Mordad). In the United States the Dow Jones hit an all-time record on Monday (Al Jazeera, 13 Mordad) and the manufacturing purchasing managers index reached 55.6 in July, its highest in more than four years (Institute for Supply Management, reported by Eghtesad Online, 12 Mordad). The channel from both to Tehran is the same: a stronger dollar index means cheaper spot gold and ultimately downward pressure on rial-priced gold. In the neighbourhood, Qatar, in calls with the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain, urged Persian Gulf coordination on implementing the US-Iran memorandum (Anadolu Agency, 12 Mordad); and in the last quotes at 8:05 today the UAE dirham was 52,030 tomans, the Turkish lira 4,110 tomans, the Chinese yuan 28,580 tomans and 100 Iraqi dinars 12,590 tomans on the sell side.

Crypto: the only dollar market open today

On a day when exchange bureaus and gold shops are closed, the crypto market is the only place an Iranian can see a dollar price and trade right now, and that makes it today's most important indicator.

Bitcoin was recorded at $63,745 at 7:59 today, up 1.50 percent over 24 hours, and a second source showed $63,883 at 8:05. Ethereum traded between $1,862 and $1,868 in the same minutes. The total crypto market capitalisation was about $2.2 trillion, with bitcoin's share of it at 58.7 percent. Notably, today's gain came while the market's fear and greed index stood at 28, in "fear" territory.

The more important number for an Iranian household is the tether rate: 192,042 to 193,025 tomans between 7:59 and 8:05 today, depending on the platform. That is effectively level with the last banknote dollar rate (192,450 tomans), meaning the online dollar market has not put a noticeable precautionary premium on the overnight Hormuz news. If tensions escalate, the first place you will see it is this tether rate, not the exchange bureau boards, which are shut until tomorrow. The standing reminder for this section: the toman price of any cryptocurrency already embeds the dollar rate, so a bitcoin flat in dollars can still move up and down in tomans.

Currency: a market that went into the holiday with a 25 percent gap

In the currency market, the last recorded free-market dollar rate at 8:05 today was 190,550 tomans bid and 192,450 tomans offered. Our own recorded data at 19:59 on Monday shows 192,880 tomans, and Eco Iran also reported on Monday evening that the dollar stayed in the 192,000 toman channel. Three sources, one picture: the dollar went into the holiday in the 192,000 toman channel. The euro was recorded at 221,400 tomans and the pound at 255,800 tomans on the sell side.

On the official side, the remittance dollar at the Iran Currency and Gold Exchange Center was 153,616 tomans (sell) on Monday morning, 0.18 percent higher. On these figures the gap between the free and remittance rates is about 38,800 tomans, close to 25 percent; in Monday's midday report the same gap was calculated at about 24 percent, so it has widened slightly in a day.

Gold and coin: a board that closed quietly

A gram of 18-karat gold was 18,382,400 tomans in the last recording at 19:58 on Monday 12 Mordad, 0.28 percent higher, and a mesghal of gold was 79,625,000 tomans. The Emami coin traded at 184,995,000 tomans (0.55 percent higher) and the Bahar Azadi at 180,455,000 tomans; the Emami figure is consistent with Eco Iran's Monday evening report describing it as "close to 185 million tomans."

The structure of the premiums is worth repeating: the Emami coin premium is 1,639,000 tomans, about 0.9 percent, while the quarter-coin premium is 7,170,000 tomans, about 13.5 percent; the small denominations remain the most expensive part of this market. The mechanism behind yesterday's calm is simple: the rial price of gold is the product of the global ounce and the dollar rate, and both legs were near motionless.

Stocks: a board on which no industry was red

Monday 12 Mordad was the last session before the holiday and recorded one of the broadest advances of the year. The TEDPIX headline index closed at 5,277,353 points, up 123,295 points or 2.39 percent. The equal-weight index rose 2.50 percent to 1,497,760 points and the Iran Fara Bourse index rose 2.69 percent to 42,757 points. Trade value on the exchange board was about 28.7 thousand billion tomans across 394,746 trades, and net individual buying across 1,077 symbols was positive at about 19.1 billion shares (our own recorded data from the exchange feed, 12 Mordad).

The key number, though, lies elsewhere. According to Sena's report, 39 of the 40 active industry indices rose and the average industry index gain was 2.51 percent; the sole exception was the hotel and restaurant index, which was unchanged for a second consecutive day because its symbols were suspended. In practice, then, no industry index closed red. The metal products index posted the largest daily gain at 4.16 percent, settling at 460,000 points; that index is up 91 percent over the 50 trading days of this year so far.

Twelve industry indices also set all-time highs, among them retail at 16,706 points (up 117 percent over the 50 trading days of this year), food products at 237,290 points (110 percent) and agriculture at 1,060,000 points (109 percent). This list carries a structural point that goes beyond yesterday's news: domestically oriented and consumer industries lead the record list, meaning a large part of this advance reflects the rial revaluation of assets rather than simply a reaction to the negotiations story.

Iron and steel: prices flat, power risk on the table

The last recorded rebar prices are from 12 Mordad and are not updated today because of the holiday: 10 mm Aryan Foulad grade A3 rebar ex-works at 71,360 tomans per kilogram, 12 mm rebar in both grades at 70,090 tomans and 14 mm grade A3 rebar at 70,000 tomans.

The important news in this section is not about price but about operations. The one-day-a-week power restriction on industrial estates starting this week bears directly on the production schedules of steel and cement units, and in peak consumption season it usually shows up sooner in the producer's margin than in the ex-works price. On the other side, the governor of Bushehr announced that 60 million cubic metres of lost South Pars gas production has come back on stream (Eghtesad Online, 13 Mordad).

Cars: the only domestic market that traded today

The car market was both active and red today. According to Eghtesad Online on 13 Mordad, the Peugeot 207 automatic fell 40 million tomans to 2,480 million tomans, the Dena Plus automatic fell 25 million tomans to 2,715 million tomans, and the Samand Soren Plus XU7P fell 11 million tomans to 1,570 million tomans. Among Saipa products, the Atlas S fell 30 million tomans to 1,310 million tomans. The flow is not uniform, however: the Tara automatic V4 rose 2 million tomans and the Shahin automatic Plus rose 22 million tomans. According to analysts quoted in the same report, trading conditions remain stagnant and the limited price declines have not produced any noticeable pickup in buying and selling.

Building materials: unchanged

The last recorded cement prices are from 12 Mordad and were unchanged from the day before: a tonne of bulk type 2 Portland cement was 3,937,000 tomans at Tehran Cement and 3,593,000 tomans at Abyek Cement, and a 50 kg bag of the same product was 291,000 tomans in Tehran. That same industrial-estate power restriction is the main variable for this market in the weeks ahead.

The takeaway

Today's verdict: Iran's market is closed, but the pricing of risk is not. The Tehran Stock Exchange closed on a board where no industry index was red and 12 industries set all-time highs, a full pricing of the de-escalation scenario; and that same night the oil market took back about a fifth of that discount, with Brent returning to $84.82. Why does it matter? Because until the reopening on Wednesday 14 Mordad, Iranian shareholders are sitting on a position that the global market began revising only last night. The one thing to remember: on holidays the tether rate is the only live thermometer of Iran's dollar market, and this morning that thermometer was level with the banknote dollar, not above it.

What to watch today and tomorrow

• The tether rate through today, as the only live indicator of domestic dollar demand on a holiday.
• Whether Brent holds in the $84 range and the overnight recovery consolidates, or the negotiation scenario is given weight again.
• Any official announcement on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which Trump promised for "tomorrow," and the refining group's reaction at Wednesday's reopening.
• The Tehran Stock Exchange reopening on Wednesday 14 Mordad and whether TEDPIX holds Monday's 2.39 percent gain or gives part of it back.
• The government bond auction on 14 Mordad. Follow upcoming events on the Sahmino calendar.
• The closure of government offices and banks in Ilam, Qom, Kermanshah, Hormozgan and Bushehr provinces on Wednesday 14 Mordad and its effect on settlement and funds transfer (Eghtesad Online, 12 Mordad).

The figures in this report are given with their reference time and date, and market rates change through the day. The Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran's domestic markets are closed today for Arbaeen, and the domestic figures in this report are the last rates recorded before the holiday. The analytical passages in this report are cautious observations and are not buy or sell advice.