KRSH Stands 17.7% Below Its 4 October High as Half-Year Profit Rises 3.8x but Latest Monthly Sales Fall 8.3% (4 November 2026)

Kourosh Food Industry (KRSH) posted standalone, unaudited net profit of 85,215 billion rials for the six months to 22 September 2026, up from 22,328 billion rials a year earlier, or 3.8 times as much. But the exchange's recorded closing-price reading on Wednesday 4 November, checked at 17:33 Tehran, was 25,370 rials, 17.7% below the 30,830-rial high on 4 October. Sales in the month to 22 October also fell 8.3% from the month before, and individuals net-sold in nine of the last 12 sessions. What do the sellers see, and where would the price show that they were right?

Background

KRSH's Codal monthly report breaks out household liquid cooking oil, semi-solid oil, commercial and industrial oil, and ancillary sales such as feed corn. The numbers suggest selling prices, rather than volumes, powered most of the growth. For the six months to September 2026, household liquid-oil units sold rose from 110,900 to 121,839, or 9.9%, while the price per unit rose from 852,919,748 to 3,854,998,506 rials, roughly 4.52 times as high. Volume multiplied by the unit selling rate agrees with the filed 469,689,163 million rials of sales of this product. A lower unit count or a weaker rate in subsequent months therefore matters more than a headline rise in nominal revenue.

There is already a caution in the latest monthly report. Net sales were 124,153,362 million rials for the month to 22 October, against 135,419,727 million rials in the month to 22 September, an 8.3% decline. Sales of household liquid oil fell from 105,916,407 million to 89,088,018 million rials, a 15.9% drop; units sold fell from 27,443 to 24,314, or 11.4%, and the per-unit rate fell 5.1%. Seven-month sales, 708,665,416 million rials, still topped the comparable prior-year 158,949,637 million rials by about 346%. The six-month 584,512,054 million rials plus the latest month's 124,153,362 million rials exactly reconciles to that seven-month total.

The numbers

The standalone, unaudited six-month statement to 22 September 2026 (Codal tracing no. 1614812) reports the following in million rials; the comparison column for the six months to 22 September 2025 was restated:

Six-month net profit amounted to 91% of the 93,396,089 million rials reported in the audited standalone full-year accounts to 20 March 2026, while six-month revenue amounted to 125% of that year's 466,755,303 million rials. The gross margin, however, slipped from 23.5% in the prior six months and 26.6% in that full year to 20.1% in the latest six months. Costs have therefore taken a larger share of each rial of revenue even as sales expanded.

Drivers

Cash supports the earnings: net operating cash flow of 134,949,159 million rials was 1.58 times net profit of 85,214,997 million rials in the same standalone six-month statement. The balance sheet qualifies that reading. Between 20 March and 22 September 2026, trade and other receivables rose from 80,357,870 million to 202,479,185 million rials, while trade and other payables rose from 63,776,891 million to 154,089,364 million rials and provisions rose from 82,249,088 million to 128,504,306 million rials. The increase of 90,312,473 million rials in payables and 46,255,218 million rials in provisions sits beside strong operating cash flow: some cash has been retained while obligations remain outstanding. Inventory reached 111,647,224 million rials and short-term borrowings 42,654,545 million rials; cash on hand rose from 24,631,233 million to 47,763,060 million rials.

At the 12 July 2026 assembly, shareholders approved a 1,600-rial-per-share cash dividend on the year to 20 March 2026, a total of 70,400,000 million rials, or 75.4% of that year's earnings. Dividend payable was still 48,696,711 million rials on the September balance sheet; Sahmino's dividend calendar carries the issuer's payment schedule. A buyer now does not receive that already-approved dividend.

Outlook

Valuation alone does not answer the sellers. The exchange-derived price-to-earnings multiple is 7.14 on the recorded 25,370-rial closing-price reading of 4 November, against a food-sector multiple of 7.34 in the 2 November nightly profile. Its trailing earnings per share were 3,552 rials. This is close to sector parity rather than a marked discount. Doubling the six-month 1,936-rial basic EPS would produce an illustrative P/E of 6.55 at 25,370 rials, not a profit forecast. Investors marking the stock below its high may be testing the weaker latest-month volume and unit price and the narrowing gross margin rather than simply rejecting the six-month report.

The ownership split adds a measurable tension. In the 20 sessions through 3 November, individual investors' net flow was about minus 1,078 billion rials. On 4 November, individuals bought 10,589,262 shares and sold 20,754,754, a net sale of about 10.2 million shares; the approximately 257.9 billion-rial net value was estimated from that day's 25,370-rial closing-price reading. Institutions bought 10,202,621 shares and sold 37,129. The data says who traded, not why; institutional buying need not be an informed-money signal.

Sahmino's desk carried a buy reading dated 3 November 2026, at a 26,030-rial reference price, a 28,050-rial target, a 24,749-rial invalidation and a 15-session horizon. Its open flow-turn signal, originating on 31 October with a 26,950-rial reference, reports a 66.3% lower bound for target attainment against a 51.6% same-regime random-entry control; at the 25,380-rial last trade its reported reward-to-risk was 4.23 and entry had not passed its 27,500-rial far edge. The current stance itself has no computed sample or probability. Across the desk's entire settled signal history, 3,700 of 6,515 signals (56.8%) hit target and 2,639 invalidated; this is not a stock-specific success rate. Four earlier KRSH buy stances dated 3 to 6 October with a 27,131-rial invalidation were all invalidated, and the stock subsequently traded as low as 24,300 rials on 26 October.

The recorded 25,370-rial closing-price reading stands 9.6% below the 28,050-rial target, measured against the target, and 2.5% above the 24,749-rial invalidation, measured against invalidation. That narrow cushion is the real conflict: a session closing below 24,749 rials would settle the sellers' case against this call. Follow the desk's target, invalidation and horizon together in Sahmino's ideas and signals and compare the price on the KRSH price page.

Bottom line

The sellers' test is a KRSH close below 24,749 rials; until then the 85,215 billion-rial six-month profit, operating cash flow at 1.58 times profit, and a 7.14 P/E versus the sector's 7.34 face weaker monthly sales and a thinner margin. Sahmino desk reading from the 3 November session: KRSH stays above 24,749 rials and reaches 28,050 rials; condition: no session close below 24,749 rials; horizon: 15 trading sessions; invalidation: a close below 24,749 rials.

What to follow

• The next monthly filing: sales against the latest 124,153,362 million rials and household liquid-oil units against 24,314.
• Whether the gross margin in the next earnings statement recovers from 20.1%.
• Whether receivables of 202,479,185 million rials and payables of 154,089,364 million rials unwind.
• The next recorded session close versus 24,749 rials and individual net selling.