OPEC and IEA Cut 2026 Oil Demand Forecasts as Brent Slips to the $88 Channel; Iran Market Pulse, Thursday Midday, 22 Mordad 1405

Lead

Thursday midday, 22 Mordad 1405 (August 13, 2026), on the Tehran bourse's weekly holiday, both OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut their 2026 oil demand forecasts in their August reports, citing the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude slipped about half a percent in Asian trading and stood at $88.51 a barrel at 10:57am Tehran time, according to Sahmino's own data. At the same time, ship-tracking data from Kpler showed Hormuz traffic fell to just 8 vessels on Tuesday, less than a tenth of the pre-war rate. In Iran's parallel markets, Tehran's free-market dollar edged up this morning, according to the live tracker Alanchand, to 187,250 tomans, while global gold held above $4,370. Both the Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Fara Bourse are closed today; their last live session was Wednesday.

Today's Snapshot

Today's Top Headlines

• OPEC and the IEA both cut their 2026 oil demand forecasts in August reports, citing the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent fell about half a percent in Thursday's Asian trading (Thursday, 22 Mordad / Aug 13; Oilprice.com).
• Strait of Hormuz traffic fell to just 8 vessels on Tuesday, against a recent 10-day average of about 12 a day and a pre-war rate of roughly 130 to 140 (Wednesday, 21 Mordad / Aug 12; Al Jazeera, citing Kpler and Reuters).
• Two Indian state refiners are seeking to buy 6 million barrels of spot crude to avoid cargoes that transit the Strait of Hormuz or the Red Sea (Wednesday, 21 Mordad / Aug 12; Oilprice.com, citing Reuters).
• Iran's point-to-point food inflation reached 128.1% in the month of Tir, with annual inflation at 66% and monthly inflation at 3.1% (Thursday, 22 Mordad / Aug 13; Donya-e-Eqtesad).
• Washington said the withdrawal of remaining US troops from Iraq will be complete by the end of September 2026, amid the regional war and wider West Asia tensions (Wednesday, 21 Mordad / Aug 12; Ecoiran, citing The Associated Press).

Currency

Tehran's free-market dollar, per the live tracker Alanchand, edged up 50 tomans (0.03%) from yesterday to 187,250 tomans as of 11:00am Thursday, 22 Mordad. The same tracker said the dollar fell 750 tomans to 187,200 tomans on Wednesday. That level sits about 550 tomans above the last reading on tgju.org and Sahmino's own price feed, which has been frozen since Tuesday evening (20 Mordad, 7:59pm) at 187,800 tomans; Tehran's physical cash currency and gold bazaar has not posted a fresh print for those two feeds since Tuesday evening, even as other live trackers continue to publish daily rates. In other words, after Tuesday's 1.19% jump, reported in yesterday's Market Pulse, the dollar has effectively held in the 187,000 to 188,000 toman range for two straight days. On monetary policy, central bank governor Abdolnasser Hemmati's recent remarks on Iran's expected accession to the BRICS New Development Bank remain without fresh operational detail.

Gold and Coin

Exchange-traded 18-karat gold, which unlike the cash bazaar's rates trades every day including today, stood at 19,770,100 tomans per gram on Sahmino's feed at 10:59am Tehran time; that is about 3% above the last cash-market print (19,205,600 tomans, recorded Tuesday evening), a gap that typically widens after the physical bazaar has been shut for several days. The Emami gold coin and its premium (which jumped 51.67% overnight Tuesday to about 4,227,000 tomans) also have no fresh print since then; the next reading awaits the physical market's reopening. Globally, spot gold was choppy today: tgju.org put it up 0.66% at $4,379.42 an ounce at 10:32am, while Sahmino's own feed showed it down 0.75% at $4,375.34 a little later, at 11:18am; either way, the ounce traded in a $4,375 to $4,379 range this morning. Silver traded up almost 0.7% above $64 at 10:32am. A London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) mid-year survey published today forecast average 2026 gold prices near $4,604; of the 16 analysts surveyed, five cited Iran as their top concern for the gold market (Kitco News). China's central bank, according to Bourse News citing Investing.com, added to its gold reserves for a 21st straight month in July.

Stocks and Farabourse

The Tehran Stock Exchange and Iran Fara Bourse, two entirely separate markets and indices, are both closed today, Thursday, and do not reopen until Saturday, 24 Mordad. The last recorded session of Tehran's main index (TEDPIX) was Tuesday, 20 Mordad, when it rose 82,308 points (1.46%) to enter the 5.7-million-point channel for the first time, a fresh record; per Donya-e-Eqtesad, it was the index's seventh straight positive session. Farabourse's own index (IFX) reached 45,929 points the same day (up about 1.1%), against 45,433 points on Monday, tracing a calmer climb than Tehran's bourse. Per Sahmino's data, retail money flow into the Tehran bourse was net positive that session (about 7.7 billion tomans), while institutions were net sellers, a pattern that has repeated for several weeks of this rally. Per Bourse News, Iran's equity investment funds averaged a 12.52% weekly return in the week ending 14 Mordad, the highest weekly return among the country's major domestic investment instruments. In corporate news, the symbol GZIZ (Kagohar), per Bourse News, posted seven-month sales up 80% to 61.7 trillion tomans, a historic sales record for the company.

Crypto

Crypto markets saw modest moves today after a relatively calm week: Bitcoin rose 0.61% to $63,901 on Sahmino's feed at 10:57am Tehran time, and Ethereum traded up 0.74% near $1,898. Tether's domestic toman rate dipped a slight 0.21% to 186,900 tomans at 10:59am; unlike the cash currency and gold bazaar, crypto markets and online tether exchanges keep operating and pricing daily even on days the bourse is closed.

Iron and Steel

On the Iran Mercantile Exchange, the last settlement for A3 ribbed rebar, size 14-20, was Monday, 19 Mordad, at 675,629 rials (about 67,563 tomans) per kilogram, while size 22-32 settled at 688,724 rials (68,872 tomans); these are volume-weighted exchange averages, not a daily posted rate. By contrast, Aryan Steel's factory price list for size-10 A3 rebar, updated today, Thursday, put the mill price at 70,000 tomans per kilogram, about 3.6% above the exchange's last settlement, a gap driven mainly by the recent free-market dollar rise and inflation expectations. In corporate news, iron-ore concentrate producer GZIZ (Gol-e Gohar Iron Ore, known by its symbol Kagohar) reported record seven-month sales of 61.7 trillion tomans (Bourse News), a development that indirectly affects steelmakers' iron-ore supply chain.

Vehicles

Iran's auto market has held in its recent range today, Thursday, in the absence of any visible move in the cash currency market. Per today's price list, the Saipa Pride 151 GX (1405 model) is priced at 1.15 billion tomans, the Iran Khodro Dena Plus Turbo Automatic Optional (1405 model) at 2.7 billion tomans, and the Tara Automatic V4 (1405 model) at 2.62 billion tomans. As yesterday's Market Pulse reported, per Khabar Online, uncertainty over the economic and political outlook, combined with weak effective demand, has kept prices from settling into a single direction, with the market instead pricing each model on its own separate demand.

Building Materials

On the commodity exchange, the last settlement for Type 2 (42.5) bulk cement dates to Monday, 19 Mordad, at 27,109 rials (about 2,711 tomans) per kilogram. At retail today, Thursday, a 50-kilogram bag of Type 2 Portland cement from Abyek costs 289,000 tomans and from Tehran Cement 291,000 tomans; that puts the retail bagged rate at nearly 5,800 tomans per kilogram, roughly double the exchange's bulk settlement, a gap Sahmino has previously attributed to a widening bag premium across most producers. Seasonal construction demand and producers' energy costs are the main drivers of that spread.

Regional and Global Outlook

Oil was the central theme in global markets today: both OPEC and the IEA cut their 2026 oil demand forecasts on Wednesday, citing the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz; the IEA raised its projected 2026 demand decline to 1.6 million barrels a day, while OPEC trimmed its demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels a day from 780,000 (Oilprice.com). Brent fell about half a percent in Thursday's Asian trading following the reports, to $88.56 a barrel per Oilprice.com; on Sahmino's own feed it stood at $88.51 at 10:57am Tehran time. The main channel of this volatility to Tehran remains Hormuz risk: per Kpler data reported by Reuters and Al Jazeera, only 8 vessels transited the strait Tuesday, against a recent 10-day average of about 12. Two Indian state refiners, MRPL and HPCL, said they are seeking 6 million barrels of spot crude so their cargoes avoid transiting Hormuz or the Red Sea, a sign the Hormuz disruption is reshaping oil-trading patterns in Asia as well. In Iraq, per Ecoiran citing the Associated Press, Washington said the withdrawal of its remaining troops from the country will be complete by the end of September, a development that, alongside the regional war, could affect the stability of Iraq's oil exports and its dinar market. In regional currencies, the Turkish lira stood near 47.77 against the dollar at 11:00am today (Sahmino), little changed from Wednesday's record.

Takeaway

Today's verdict: Iran's domestic markets were quiet, but the day's real driver came from the Strait of Hormuz, not Tehran. The same reports that cut global 2026 oil demand forecasts showed the Hormuz shipping disruption has now gone deep enough that even Asian refiners are seeking alternative routes, meaning the strait's risk premium looks less like a passing worry and more like a new structural fact for energy markets. At home, the dollar and gold effectively went without fresh news in the absence of an active cash market, and the bourse rested on Tuesday's record. One thing to remember: when the cash dollar goes quiet, exchange-traded gold (IRG18) still prices every day, and can signal the direction of the days ahead before street rates catch up.

What to Watch Today

• How energy markets respond to the OPEC and IEA reports in the coming days, and whether today's Brent dip continues or is offset by Hormuz risk.
• Continued Iran-Oman talks on a shipping-route map for the Strait of Hormuz.
• The reopening of Tehran's physical currency and gold bazaar on Saturday, 24 Mordad, and how far cash rates will sit from today's exchange-traded prices.
• The reopening of the Tehran Stock Exchange and Farabourse on Saturday, and whether TEDPIX's seven-session rally continues.
• Further detail from the Statistical Center's Tir-month inflation report and its effect on demand for inflation-hedge assets.

For more scheduled events, see the Sahmino market calendar.