Four sectors, by the data
1. Oil refining and petroleum products
Why this sector: Screening the sector's 12 TSE-listed names, three-month returns for its larger constituents, as computed today, range from roughly 30% to over 160%; Sahmino's composite score reaches 83 out of 100 for one name in the group, among the highest anywhere in the market. This week's key driver: Brent crude, at $93.70 today, having crossed $93 overnight for the first time in this stretch, per Sahmino's own reporting. Key signal: one large name in the sector hit its highest close in a year on Wednesday, August 19, per recorded on-tape events, while carrying an active buy queue the same session. Key risk: that same session, at least two large names in the sector opened 2.5% to 2.8% below the prior close, a sign of volatility and profit-taking after the recent sharp run. Verdict: the sector most directly tied to global oil prices and Hormuz tension; whether the driver holds depends on the tension holding, not on anything domestic.
2. Basic metals (steel and copper)
Why this sector: across the sector's 49 names, three-month returns range from roughly 25% to over 160%, with Sahmino composite scores mostly clustering between 60 and 67. This week's key driver: the free-market dollar, at 1,894,050 rials Thursday evening, which widens the gap between metal producers' dollar-denominated export revenue and their rial costs. Key signal: one of the sector's largest producers, previously halted earlier this summer due to the war, logged four consecutive higher closes through Wednesday, August 19, per recorded on-tape events. Key risk: that same leading name's one-month return, unlike its positive three-month and one-year returns, came in at -3.49%, a sign the sector has entered a consolidation phase after its sharp summer run. Verdict: a dollar-linked sector with a strong fundamental driver, but with clear signs of short-term fatigue in its lead name.
3. Banks and credit institutions
Why this sector: of the sector's 15 names, nearly all posted double- to triple-digit three-month returns (roughly 44% to over 140% in the sample screened), a broader and less scattered rally than the market average. This week's key driver: money rotating out of sectors that had already pushed the index to record highs and into a group that had lagged until recently, plus the effect of rial weakness on the revalued FX assets some banks hold. Key signal: one large name in the sector, per recorded on-tape events, posted its highest close since mid-June on Wednesday, August 19, with its 20-day moving average crossing above its 50-day average the same day; another logged its 17th consecutive higher close that same session, alongside a buy queue at a fresh 52-week high. Even so, the sector leader's price-to-book ratio remains around 0.8, meaning the group has not become expensive despite the rally. Key risk: several large names are simultaneously testing multi-month or one-year highs, leaving less room for positive surprise, and loan-book quality and provisioning remain the least transparent part of the sector's picture. Verdict: a sector both catching up to the rally and still closing the gap; money rotation, more than headlines, is the driver here.
4. Automotive and auto parts
Why this sector: across the sector's 40 names, most large names gained roughly 20% to 90% over three months, with retail money flowing steadily into the group over the last five sessions. This week's key driver: the unresolved dispute between the Competition Council and the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade over car pricing; the council previously called the ministry's approved 15% price increase insufficient against its own recommended 25%, a dispute still unsettled. Key signal: one large automaker, per recorded on-tape events, hit its highest close since January 21 on Wednesday, August 19, having already logged a 20/50-day moving-average golden cross on August 16, a sign of a steadier uptrend rather than a single spike. Key risk: the very same pricing dispute driving the rally could just as easily reverse it; any new unfavorable ruling or delay from either institution could turn the group around. Verdict: a sector whose coming week is being decided not by the market, but by a still-open institutional dispute.
