Three sample baskets, cautious, balanced and bold, from 22 November 2025 to 21 October 2026 on closes recorded by Sahmino: cautious returned 52.5%, balanced 99.0% and bold 150.5%, while the consumer price index rose 82.4%. Each asset's worst drop sits beside its return.
We put three sample baskets side by side on the closing prices recorded by Sahmino: a cautious basket, a balanced one and a bold one. The window runs from Saturday 22 November 2025 (1 Azar 1404) to Wednesday 21 October 2026 (29 Mehr 1405), eleven months, and the yardstick is official inflation over the same window. All three baskets rose in nominal terms, but only two of them beat inflation.
Three baskets, three mixes
Cautious: 80% in the ETHF fixed-income fund and 20% in the MOFD gold fund.
Balanced: 40% fixed income, 30% gold fund and 30% stocks, represented by the Tehran Stock Exchange main index (TEDPIX).
Bold: 80% stocks (TEDPIX) and 20% gold fund.
How the numbers are worked out
Each basket is bought on 22 November 2025 at these weights and held to 21 October 2026 with no rebalancing. An asset's return is its close on 21 October 2026 divided by its close on 22 November 2025, minus one; a basket's return is the sum of weight times asset return. 21 October is the last trading session of Mehr 1405, and the Statistical Centre of Iran has not yet published the Aban 1405 index, so inflation runs to Mehr 1405.
Asset
Close, 22 Nov 2025
Close, 21 Oct 2026
Return
ETHF fixed-income fund (rial)
14,210
18,913
33.1%
MOFD gold fund (rial)
316,928
729,298
130.1%
TEDPIX main index (points)
3,197,705
8,173,767
155.6%
The Statistical Centre of Iran's consumer price index went from 417.54 in Aban 1404 to 761.79 in Mehr 1405: 82.4% growth. In other words, 100 million toman needed to become 182.4 million toman just to keep its purchasing power.
The result
Basket
Return
100 million toman became
Against inflation
Cautious
52.5%
152.5 million
16.4% less purchasing power
Balanced
99.0%
199.0 million
about 9% more purchasing power
Bold
150.5%
250.5 million
37.3% more purchasing power
The cautious basket ended 29.9 million toman short of the inflation-matching amount. The reason is plain: the fixed-income fund rose 33.1% over the eleven months, so a portfolio held entirely in it would have lost 27.0% of its purchasing power. The 20% gold-fund slice closed part of that gap, but not all of it.
The price of a higher return
The bold basket won this window, but the road was not smooth. Each asset's worst drop inside the same eleven months, peak to trough:
TEDPIX: down 19.4%, from 4,491,769 points on 19 January 2026 to 3,618,482 points on 22 February 2026.
MOFD gold fund: down 25.8%, from 596,182 rial on 3 May 2026 to 442,228 rial on 23 June 2026.
ETHF fixed-income fund: no fall was recorded in any session of the window.
These are single-asset drops; we have not worked out the baskets' own drawdowns. Another point is the exchange closure: in Sahmino's records TEDPIX sat frozen at 3,713,956 points from 25 February to 18 May 2026, about 80 days. Anyone holding stocks in those days could not sell even if they wanted to.
What the calculation leaves out
Trading commissions, taxes and bid-ask spreads are not included. TEDPIX is a price index that leaves out cash dividends, and the index itself cannot be bought directly, so its 155.6% stands for stocks, not for a real portfolio. Fund prices are market closes and can sit away from the funds' net asset value. And eleven months is one window, not a rule.
Which one are you?
The winning window does not make an investor type; the drop you can sit through does. The fixed-income fund had no drop and still trailed inflation, while the bold basket pulled ahead and lived through single-asset drops of 19% to 26% and about 80 days of a closed exchange. Before choosing, set fund returns beside inflation in Sahmino: the ETHF and MOFD pages show price, net asset value and price history. For the basics, read our guide to investment funds and ETFs and the earlier piece on the lowest-risk starting point.
