CSIS assessment: US missile inventories are depleted but still sufficient to continue this war

The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in an analysis titled "Last Rounds? Status of Key Munitions at the Iran War Ceasefire", assessed that the United States has depleted its missile inventories but still holds enough munitions to continue this war under any plausible scenario. The centre said the main risk relates to future wars, particularly a confrontation with a peer competitor such as China.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, which Iranian media also carried on Tuesday, 28 July 2026 (6 Mordad 1405), the United States has fired more than 1,000 Tomahawk cruise missiles since the war began on 28 February 2026, along with 1,500 to 2,000 air-defence missiles including THAAD, Patriot and Standard Missile interceptors. Returning Tomahawk, THAAD and Patriot inventories to pre-war levels would take at least three years under current production and delivery schedules.

The difference between these two readings matters for Iran's market: assessments of America's capacity to resume operations are among the main inputs to risk pricing in Tehran's currency and gold markets.