Deutsche Bank puts gold's fair value at about $4,700 an ounce by the end of 2026

Deutsche Bank analysts, in a note carried by CNBC and reported by Iran's IRNA news agency on Wednesday, 5 August 2026 (14 Mordad 1405), estimated gold's fair value will reach about $4,700 an ounce by the end of this calendar year and hold around $4,600 in the fourth quarter. That is more optimistic than the bank's previous forecast, published on 23 June 2026 at the height of inflation concerns.

According to the note, the past six months have been difficult for the metal, and gold now sits well below its record high of $5,589.38 an ounce set on 29 January 2026. Even so, the price has doubled since August 2024, and the bank's analysts described the trend of the past two years as explosive. Spot gold stood at $4,061.82 an ounce at the time of writing, with December futures at about $4,119.9.

In the same note Deutsche Bank referred to a December 2025 warning from the Bank for International Settlements, which found that the gold market had entered bubble like territory and could face a significant correction. The bank's analysts had earlier cautioned that if the Federal Reserve raises interest rates three or four more times, gold could fall to $3,800 an ounce, because the prospect of higher rates makes yielding assets such as bonds more attractive than gold, which pays no periodic return. These figures are one bank's analytical estimate and not a settled market forecast.