Economist Fayyazi: Point to Point Inflation Could Reach 110 to 120 Percent by End of Iranian Year

Macroeconomic analyst Mohammad Taghi Fayyazi told Khabaronline, in remarks published Sunday, 8 Shahrivar 1405 (August 30, 2026), that after tracing monthly inflation from 4.2 percent in Azar 1404 to 3.4 percent in Mordad 1405, if current conditions persist, even in the best case monthly inflation could stay in the 7 to 8 percent range and point to point inflation could reach 110 to 120 percent by the end of Esfand 1405 (March 2027), an estimate he called optimistic. He said point to point inflation, which stood at 83.9 percent in Ordibehesht 1405, has now reached about 89 percent, consistent with the Statistical Center of Iran's official figure for Mordad.

Fayyazi said that in a more optimistic scenario, if the war ends and monthly inflation holds around 3 percent, point to point inflation by Esfand could be about 60 percent and annual inflation about 80 percent. He identified the government's budget deficit as the main driver of persistent inflation and warned that triple digit inflation in food prices and rural areas is fueling a broader expansion of poverty.