Euro area business climate improved in July while consumer inflation expectations fell

Results of the European Commission's business and consumer surveys, published on Thursday, 30 July 2026, showed the euro area business climate indicator improved to minus 0.19 points in July 2026 from minus 0.36 points in June. The region's economic sentiment indicator also rose to 96.9 points in July, against 95.4 points in June and above the market forecast of 96 points.

According to the data, industrial sentiment improved to minus 6.1 points from minus 7.5, and services sentiment to 4.7 points from 4.2. The consumer confidence indicator was confirmed at minus 15.9 points in the final July reading, against minus 17.6 points in June.

In the same release, euro area consumer inflation expectations fell to 30.3 points in July from 34 points in June, and firms' selling price expectations declined to 17.7 points from 22.1. The euro area unemployment rate held unchanged at 6.3 percent in June. That combination, an improving business climate alongside cooling inflation expectations, is among the inputs into the European Central Bank's interest rate decisions and bears on the euro to dollar exchange rate.